Why Not Syria Too?

Video of clashes in Daraa, #Syria: http://bit.ly/fvHbn4

Andrew Sullivan's Chart Of The Day (Daily Dish, 17 Mar 2011) is The Economist's "interactive index of unrest in the Arab world," which can be adjusted by moving around the weights "The Shoe Thrower's Index" (Economist, 14 March 2011).  Add of bit of literacy and Libya comes out on top. (Twitpic posted February 24, 2011, by rutevera)

Mapping Libya: Update

("Latest maps of Libya with Gaddafi vs National Libyan Council," Sandra from off the Strip, March 5, 2011) Maps (there is another for West Libya) are created and posted by/through iyad_elbaghdadi's Stream

Women and Revolt: Happy International Women's Day

• [T]his year, women across the Middle East and North Africa are highlighting their role in the protest movements that have toppled dictators in Tunisia and Egypt and appear on the verge of pushing through major changes in other places. Twitter and Facebook were filled with messages of support for the women of Egypt and Tunisia, as well as protesters in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran....
• A Million Woman March was planned for Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday, and activists in Beirut planned their own march against sexual harassment.
• In Iran, opposition leaders called on women to use the occasion of International Women's Day to take to the streets in protest of the ongoing crackdown against anti-government demonstrations. ("Middle East: Protest movements give new energy to International Women's Day," Babylon & Beyond, LA Times, March 8, 2011)

For Iran today, see "Live blog report of International Women’s Day events in Iran," by Saeed Valadbaygi, 8 March 2011(Posters from 25 Bahman)

Mapping Awakening (or at least Relative Youth, Literacy, and Poverty)

The Arabist points to four really useful maps ("The new Arab Awakening," Le Monde diplomatique, March 2011, by Philippe Rekacewicz) including proportion of population with higher education and internet connection, proportion of young among the general population and their illiteracy rate (Col. Qaddafi's regime must have done something correct, as there is almost no illiteracy among the young there; is that correct?), national population and poverty.

UPDATE: Related graphics on population curve of each nation, unemployment, etc. (February 17, 2011. "Challenges Facing Countries Across North Africa and the Middle East," Washington Post)

"Oh my T V C one five, oh oh, T V C one five": Arab Version

Commentators most always associate recent Arab youth revolts with new social media, and have been termed them Facebook Revolutions.  But a study (published in Arab Media and Society, Winter 2010) hints of the role of more traditional media.  To learn what is going on, we could use some Al Jazeera reporting in the Midwest too!  As Hillary Clinton said, "Viewership of Al Jazeera is going up in the United States because it's real news." ("Hillary Clinton Calls Al Jazeera 'Real News,' Criticizes U.S. Media," Huffington Post, 03/3/11)

• Libyan TV services began in 1968....  Tripoli and Benghazi were the only two areas initially covered by television broadcast transmissions....  From 1990, satellite TV was introduced and offered Libyan viewers a more diverse range of programs, which they readily adopted.... These new channels quickly attracted local audiences and supplanted local TV services in public affection....
• Newspaper readership in Libya is lower than in many other Arab countries.... Radio broadcasting...does not have the popularity of television and tends to be used as a source of information about local events.... Television is the most popular medium in Libya.... Satellite TV news is especially popular among young people and they have been attracted most of all by the pan-Arab world channels such as Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya. Libyan people have also displayed a high level of trust in what they see on television news, especially in news programs broadcast by Al Jazeera. ("News Consumption among Young Libyan Adults," Arab Media and Society, Issue 12, Winter 2010, by Mokhtar Elareshi and Barrie Gunter)
  

History/Political Science 101: Comparative Protests

Tripoli

• What we saw today after Friday prayers was a vociferous protest by anti-Gaddafi demonstrators. Then, all of a sudden, pro-government militia and police came in vehicles screeching into the centre of the suburbs, firing dozens of tear gas canisters and baton rounds. 
• The scene was chaotic as people ran away but then they came back, shouting anti-Gaddafi slogans. ("On the Scene," Wyre Davies BBC News, Tajoura, Tripoli, 4 March 2011)

Tehran

• Iranian police have fired tear gas to disperse opposition supporters mounting protests in the capital Tehran. A BBC correspondent in Tehran said large numbers of riot police and militia on motorcycles in the city centre broke up any crowds that formed. The unrest comes a day after websites close to opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi said they had been jailed....The BBC's Mohsen Agsari in Tehran said by early evening the security forces appeared to have full control of the streets.The Basiji militia were chanting victory slogans, he said. (1 March 2011, "Iran: Security forces break up Tehran protests," BBC

Sanaa, Aden

• Yemeni troops killed four demonstrators and wounded seven others on Friday when they fired on an anti-regime rally in the north, officials and Shiite rebels said, as protests raged across the country. The shooting, which came a day after the opposition and clerics offered embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh a smooth exit from power, took place in the village of Semla, 170 kilometres (105 miles) from the capital Sanaa.... Protesters had taken to the streets of the nearby town of Harf Sufyan to criticise corruption and call for a regime change after 30 years of rule by Saleh, said the website. The Zaidi rebels, also known as Huthis, on February 22 joined anti-Saleh protests which erupted across the poverty striken country in January and gained momentum last month....
• In the capital Sanaa, massive crowds gathered for weekly Muslim prayers in a square where anti-Saleh protesters have been camped since February 20. "We will not leave this place until the fall of the corrupt and tyrants," said Yahya al-Dulaimi, the cleric who led the prayers. Organisers said more than 100,000 people were demonstrating in Sanaa on Friday....
• Meanwhile, counter demonstrations organised by Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) party were staged in nearby Tahrir Square, calling for dialogue. "No to chaos, No to sabotage, Yes to dialogue," their banners read. According to CPG leaders, hundreds of thousands were demonstrating in Saleh's favour across Yemen. In the main southern city of Aden, tens of thousands of mourners attended a funeral in Al-Mansura neighbourhood for two protesters killed by security forces during last month's violence, said an AFP correspondent. They carried banners that read, "Leave Ali, for the sake of our martyrs", while chanting, "The people want to overthrow the regime." ("Yemen army shoots dead four protesters," by Hammoud Mounassar, AFP, 4 March 2011)

Baghdad

Baghdadi protester greets police

• With a curfew on cars and bicycles, security tight and a recent history of security forces shooting, beating and detaining demonstrators, around 2,000 people were gathered for protests in Baghdad's Tahrir Square by noon Friday. Once again, they held up signs saying, "All of Us Are One Nation" and "More Services" and "No No to Corruption." Small protests were forming in several cities across the country, including Basra, Dhaqar and Najaf.
• In Baghdad, security was tight as police in riot gear faced the demonstrators, and it was unclear whether crowds would become larger following Friday prayers. Many protesters in the square said they were nervous about staying there considering violence that followed last week's nationwide demonstrations. And as they were before, entire neighborhoods in Baghdad - especially Sunni ones --were blocked by security forces who warned people not to join the demonstrations. ("Iraqis protest again, this time in 'Day of Regret'," by Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, March 4, 2011)

Embattled Brega

• OPPOSITION forces appeared to have repelled an attack by troops loyal to the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, in the rebel-controlled east of the country.
• The Libyan troops had struck at the oil installation in the port of Brega near the city of Ajdabiya.
• Plumes of smoke were seen coming from Ajdabiya and witnesses said an arms dump there had been hit by air force planes, supporting the ground force advance on Brega. ("Battle for Brega as Gaddafi launches attacks," JASON KOUTSOUKIS AJDABIYA, The Advocate (Australia), 03 Mar, 2011)

• 1345 GMT: An Al Jazeera English correspondent has just witnessed a regime airplane dropping a bomb on Brega, where Qaddafi forces have been the opposition throughout the day.
• 1320 GMT: An Al Jazeera English correspondent and an eyewitness report on a disorganised, chaotic battle at Brega with the opposition trying to dislodge 200-300 regime fighters who are holed up in the university outside the city. ("Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Battlelines Drawn," March 2, 2011, Scott Lucas, EAWorldView)

Wolves and Leopards

"We're at the Crossroads and this is the Time of Decision / Too much Informers... / Wolves and Leopards are Trying to Kill the Sheep and the Shepherd."  Dennis Brown, 1978.
And in 2011?

• A "mukhbir," or informer, knocking on doors in Cairo, Egypt is the same as the "etelaati" in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran. The Supreme Leader and his supporters are the same as those in Saudi Arabia, who use Wahabi rhetoric to marginalize secular, religious and ethnic minorities. Like the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who uses force against protesters, the leaders of the IRI have no issue in exercising violence against peaceful dissenters, political prisoners, students or labor unions. Every day, hundreds of tortured prisoners of conscience rot in Evin Prison, similar to prisoners in the American-run Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay detention center. Just as the Israeli military oppresses Palestinian political prisoners, the IRI denies access to legal counsel and uses emotional blackmail, torture and murderous tactics on the opposition. We must recognize that the IRI is the essence of an oppressive, militant dictatorship, which sustains itself through its systemized spread of lies, violence and hatred. It debases the image of Islam and subverts the cause of global freedom struggles in Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and elsewhere. ("Build connections to oppose tyranny," letter to the editor, Daily Targum, Rutgers, by Farah Hussain, February 28, 2011) Farah Hussain is a Rutgers College senior majoring in Middle Eastern studies and comparative literature. [Quite an insightful letter.]

"Libya, Libya, Libya!"

Posted 28 February, along with the second part of this video here.  "On 20 of Feb demonstrator toke over main city square then the Gadhafi thugs stormed the area with antiaircraft weapons at the end of the video you will see brave young man unarmed standing on his car challenging Gadhafi forces."

Army Remains Key in Revolts

And the organizational structure varies.  But in Iran, as in Libya, the old revolutionary elite distrusts the army, so there is a distinction between the armed forces and the security forces.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls the Basij militia and the intelligence operation.  But they are distinct from the military.  There seems to be mutual distrust on both sides.

• As I discussed in my articles about the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it is crucial for the Green Movement to gain the support of the rank and file of the IRGC to the extent that they would be unwilling to open fire on peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. (PBS, Frontline, Tehran Bureau, "Fissures in the Revolutionary Guards' Officer Corps?," by Muhammad Sahimi, 01 Mar 2011) 

I wonder, however, if outside pressure will cause them to split or lump together in response?  The latest list of those considered for sanctions is mainly IRGC and Basij heads, but there, I believe, army officers as well.  (February 26, 2011, Laura Rozen, Politico, "European list IDs 80+ Iran militia, police for possible EU human rights sanctions")

Wanted in the West: Better Headline Writers

Anger?, Turmoil?, Unrest?  Framing devices are either old and tired or hard to come by.

"Arab and Middle East revolt - an interactive map"

• Middle East in Revolt (Time Special, with lead article "How Democracy Can Work in the Middle East," by Fareed Zakaria Thursday, Feb. 03, 2011)
• "Anger on the streets: unrest in Iran, Algeria, Yemen, Morocco and China" (Guardian Special, by Nora Fakim in Rabat, Giles Tremlett, Saeed Kamali Dehghan, Tania Branigan in Beijing and agencies, 20 February 2011) "Peaceful demonstrations staged in Morocco but violence breaks out elsewhere in the Middle East and Chinese police crackdown on planned unrest"
• "Arab and Middle East revolt - an interactive map" (Country-by-country guide to the spate of protests across the Middle East, Guardian, by Paddy Allen and Guardian research department, 23 February 2011)
• "Middle East in Turmoil" (interactive map, Washington Post, by Sam Sanders, Wilson Andrews, Feb. 28, 2011)
  

Sullivan's Travels:  Keeping Watch on the Arab (and perhaps Iranian?) 1848

• Wouldn't it be a fanastic development if the uprisings throughout the Arab world rekindled the spirit of June 2009? Khamenei is obviously concerned it might:
• 'Iran has arrested opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, the opposition website Kaleme said on Monday. "Sources say that they have been arrested and transferred to Heshmatiyeh jail in Tehran," Mousavi's website Kaleme reported.' ("Tehran Begins To Panic?," The Daily Dish, 28 Feb 2011)
  

#Libya map updated 24/2/11 morning; Nalut & Zwara now wit... on Twitpic

#Libya map updated 24/2/11 morning; Nalut & Zwara now wit... on Twitpic

Benghazi and the Champ de Mars Massacre

Shoes Shown as Saif Speaks

Only a deep crisis and shaky grasp of power would cause the Libyan leader's son, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, to make a broadcast (for full text see here) in which he stated that the Libyan army erred in its handling of anti-government protests. As reported in Bloomberg, "in the most serious challenge to Qaddafi’s 41 years of rule in the country, thousands of people demonstrated yesterday in Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city. They were met by gunfire from forces loyal to Qaddafi, Human Rights Watch said, citing reports from witnesses." ("Libya Violence Deepens as Protestors Claim Control of Second-Largest City," by Mariam Fam and Ola Galal, Bloomberg, Feb 21, 2011)

One is reminded of the attempt to stop protesters in the French Revolution.  Turning state forces on the public, only reminds the public that there is little in the existing regime worth keeping.  To paraphrase from Wikipedia, when, in July 1791 a large crowd gathered at the Champ de Mars to sign a petition demanding the removal of King Louis XVI, "the marquis de Lafayette and the National Guard...tried to disperse the crowd. In retaliation, the crowd threw stones at the National Guard. After firing unsuccessful warning shots, the National Guard opened fire directly on the crowd. The exact numbers of dead and wounded are unknown; estimates range from a dozen to fifty."

"Mubarak! Ben Ali! It's now the turn of Seyed Ali!"

Coverage of Iran in the context of the Arab World revolts to its West  (the newest deal, 19 February 2011, "After Tunisia, Egypt, and 25 Bahman, a Clear Shift in Iran's Political Landscape") and in the Arab world itself ("The awakening: As change sweeps through the Middle East, the world has many reasons to fear. But it also has one great hope," The Economist, Feb 17th 2011).  [Note Green bracelet of the Iranian movement on a de facto leader of the Egyptian movement.]

The Seditionists Would Be a Good Name for a Band

And MKO and the like has become for the Iranian regime the equivalent of Muslim Brotherhood in Mubarak Egypt: the go to explanation to tar any protest.

• Tehran is bracing for what are expected to be widespread anti-government protests, but before anyone took to the streets the semi-official Fars News Agency was already warning of violence.
• "The MKO [a banned anti-government group], in collaboration with seditionists, are planning to act according to a scenario in which pocket gatherings in different parts of the city...will carry out massive killings with their armed struggle to create bloodshed," the report said. ("Iran: Tehran braces for violence as state media warns of 'bloodshed,'" LA Times, Babylon & Beyond, February 20, 2011)

There is Ham-fisted and Then There is Butchery

If Bahrain response is ham-fisted, Libyan is butchery. "Helicopters fired at demonstrators and sounds of gunfire rang out Saturday in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, a doctor who witnessed the incident told CNN." ("Report: Helicopters fire on Libya protesters," February 19th, 2011) Shades of Bến Tre, Vietnam about which in February 1968, a US officer stated: "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."

Latest Updates from The Day (MidEast Special)

•  19/02/11 at Least 50 People Were Injured Yesterday in Bahrain after Security Forces Opened Fire on Protesters
• 19/02/11 Riot Police Open Fire on Protesters in Yemen
• 19/02/11 William Hague Condemns 'Horrifying Violence' as Police and Snipers Kill Protesters in Libya
• 18/02/11 at Least 4 Dead in Libya Today. Government Building Burnt down in Capital.
• 18/02/11 Security Forces Attack Protesters in Bahrain with Teargas and Rubber Bullets
• 18/02/11 Three Killed in South Yemen Protest

Dark Days in Bahrain and Iran
Nicholas Kristof reports on ham-fisted response to protest in Bahrain:

• The pro-democracy movement has bubbled for decades in Bahrain, but it found new strength after the overthrow of the dictatorships in Tunisia and Egypt. Then the Bahrain government attacked the protesters early this week with stunning brutality, firing tear gas, rubber bullets and shotgun pellets at small groups of peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. Two demonstrators were killed (one while walking in a funeral procession), and widespread public outrage gave a huge boost to the democracy movement.
• King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa initially pulled the police back, but early on Thursday morning he sent in the riot police, who went in with guns blazing. Bahrain television has claimed that the protesters were armed with swords and threatening security. That’s preposterous. I was on the roundabout earlier that night and saw many thousands of people, including large numbers of women and children, even babies. Many were asleep. ("Blood Runs Through the Streets of Bahrain," by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, New York Times, February 17, 2011)
  

While another report notes a more secret but disturbing response in Iran.  (A posting on Facebook site 25 Bahman, notes "Green Way of Hope Council published a statement inviting all Iranians on the 20th of February to take part in the memorial service of two martyrs who were killed on February 14th.... Ardeshir Amir Arjamand, Moussavi’s vice president, confirmed the call.")

• A main leader of Iran’s opposition was reported missing on Thursday and both the opposition “green movement” and Iran’s hardliners issued calls for street rallies, escalating tensions after the reemergence of street protests and their brutal suppression on Monday.
• The daughters of the missing opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, told an opposition Web site that they had had no word from either of their parents since Tuesday and feared they had been detained. Security forces have surrounded their home, and all communications have been cut.
• On Wednesday, the Web site of another opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, reported that the house of his eldest son had been raided and damaged by security officers seeking to arrest him. ("Iranian Opposition Leader Missing as Tensions Rise," by The New York Times, February 17, 2011)

By the way, how reliable is this statement from Iranian.com?

• One main development is that the regime can not rely on its revolutionary guards (IRGC)anymore and now mainly relies on the Basij and Ansar Hezbollah militias who are mostly illiterate thugs and criminals hired from mostly rural and poor areas, paid large bonuses to suppress the protesters while their Basij ID gives them free pass to sell drugs, receive government bonuses and in some ways become untouchables.("25 Bahman Updates: The Iranian Democratic Movement Is Matured," by SecularDemocraticIran, 16-Feb-2011)
  

Meanwhile, Elsewhere

• Algeria
• Call for a popular march on February 19 in Algiers (El Watan, 13 Feb. 2011)
• (Babylon & Beyond, "Algeria: Clashes, arrests reported at banned anti-government demonstration," February 12, 2011)
• Iran
• TEHRAN - One of Iran's most prominent opposition leaders was placed under house arrest Thursday, with security agents posted at the entrance saying they would stay there until a possible anti-government protest had passed, the cleric's Web site reported.  "Only his wife is being allowed into the house," Sahamnews.org said. "This probably has to do with the protest scheduled for Monday, Feb. 14." ("Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi placed under house arrest," by Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post, February 11, 2011)
• And, after 25 Bahman (14 February), protests continue: (16 February 2011, BBC, "Iran protests: Clashes at demonstrator's Tehran funeral")
• Libya
• Global Voices in English, "Libya: Protests Begin in Benghazi Ahead of February 17 Day of Wrath," by Amira Al Hussaini, 16 February 2011) 
• ("Violent protests break out in Libya: Clashes reported in eastern city of Benghazi as security forces and government supporters confront demonstrators," Al Jazeera, 16 Feb 2011)
  
• Bahrain (and all of the above)
• ("In Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, protesters take to streets," February 14, 2011, by Ramin Mostaghim and Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times)
  
  
  • 
    A woman shows empty packages of tear gas said to have been used by riot police… (Hamad I Mohammed, Reuters)

Military Officers + The People = Co-Rule?

12:05 CST.  MSNBC discussing whether it is a military coup.  Richard Engel notes it is "a bloodless military coup."

12:00 CST.  Aljazeera has an article on "Egypt's military leadership," which profiles the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (11 Feb 2011)

Defence Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi
11:50 CST.  Anderson Cooper asking Mohamed ElBaradei about how you keep the revolution from being "betrayed" (odd word, evidently coming from a CIA adviser), Mr. ElBaradei answers "the Army must co-rule with the people (my paraphrase).  Uppermost on everyone's mind.

Regime Change = Curriculum Change?

We used to have to revise notes on yellow legal pads.  Now we have to alter our Powerpoints. "The 'Arab Moment' began January 2011.  Discuss."

• What just happened in Tunisia is going to change the canon that Columbia students read for Contemporary Civilization. As either current or former Columbia students, we all know what the French Revolution of 1789 represented for Europe. We will soon see what the Tunisian revolution of 2011 is going to be for the Arab world. ("A new beginning for Tunisia: Tunisia's revolution is a call for increased student awareness," by Youssef Cherif, February 8, 2011, Columbia Spectator)
  

Roll me over, Romeo

Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karroubi have made a request to support the Egyptian protests. "With just under a week to go before the proposed demonstration, the call has provoked a large online response centering around the 25 Bahman Facebook page, a reference to the rally’s date in the Persian calendar"  ("Iran’s Opposition Seeks Rally to Back Egypt and Tunisia," by William Yong, New York Times, February 7, 2011)  It should be noted that the Iranian government changed more than Egypt's in the last few decades, I suppose.

Mapping Dissent (and Counter-Revolution?)

A useful interactive map. ("Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East," by Sara Sorcher, Brian McGill and Julia Edwards, National Journal, February 2, 2011)

Does Hope Spring From the Barrel of a Tank?:  the Problem with Relying on Military Officers to Foster Change

Thoughtful detail from Londonistani on the roots of the Egyptian protests.  Americans have to ask how much and for how long they are willing to fund those officers.

• Mubarak...was the fourth leader of the Egypt's Free Officers' regime which came to power in a military coup against a constitutional monarchy in 1952. Egypt has a long history of being at the forefront of Middle East affairs and its people have a strong sense of pride. Political squabbling, corrupt politicians and disastrous war against the newly formed state of Israel motivated the middle class military professionals to remove their king, and British influence along with him. The coup's leader, Gamal Abdul Nasser, made Egypt the focal point of Arab hopes and earned their eternal admiration. In reality, he achieved little. His successor, Anwar el-Sadat switched the regime from the pro-Soviet to the pro-Western camp during the cold war. Sadat realised post-independence Egypt's central problem; it's economic muscle didn't match its ambition....
• Egypt's military leaders['s]...phobia of political competition acquired by their experience of the constitutional monarchy they replaced prodded them to the conclusion that Egyptians were not ready for democracy....
• [T]he problem with a rule-by-military-clique approach to government is that it does little for long-term development. Sadat's solution to this problem was to leverage Egypt's strategic value to the United States as a source of income. ("Mubarak and Me," January 31, 2011, Londonstani, Abu Muqawama)

Comparing Egypt with Egypt: J-Curve and Revolutions of Rising Expectations

Perhaps Hosni Mubarak's political party will recognize the situation they are in.  It is reminiscent of the one that brought them to power. James C. Davies, “Toward a Theory of Revolution,” American Sociological Review 27, no. 1 (February 1, 1962): 5-19, developed the J-Curve theory of revolution.  One figure is the J-Curve of rising expectations in Egypt ca. 1950, which don't continue, leading to Nasser's Revolution.  Not often does a 50-year old, political science theory have legs.  Fareed Zakaria seems to have been channeling Davies on his CNN GPS show, 30 January:

• You see, Tunisia and Egypt had been reforming their economies. This stimulated growth as a consequence. Tunisia have been growing at 5 percent a year and Egypt much faster than that. Economic growth stirs up expectations. It is this revolution of rising expectations that often undoes a dictatorship, because it is unable to handle the growing demands of its citizens. (FAREED ZAKARIA GPS, "Unrest in Egypt," Aired January 30, 2011 - 10:00 ET)

To compare or not to compare:  Is Revolution an Egyptian Word?

The blog Abu Muqawama ("Egypt: A Humble Request," January 30, 2011) makes a timely point: "can we all agree to stop using European historical analogies to describe what is taking place in Egypt? It's not Europe in 1848 or Eastern Europe in 1989 or France in 1789: it's Egypt in 2011.... When we use "western" frames of reference to make sense of what is taking place, by contrast, we a) sound really freaking narcissistic and b) fail to take those local phenomena seriously and thus miss a lot of what is going on."

I think the problem is not a Western frame of reference. After all, students of revolutions have developed some interesting insights into revolutions around the World by comparing them to earlier revolutions for which there is a fair amount of detail (France, Russia, China, etc.). 

The problem is the use of an analysis of a past revolution, to explain the future development of a rebellion that has not developed into a revolution as yet.  It turns out that no revolution springs full-blown from the head of Zeus, or from those involved in the early days (American mythology of founding fathers not withstanding).  Entrenched groups resist, movements radicalize, and the end result is much different than what people foresaw going in. (see The Dangers of Reification)

So, yes, that said, it IS important to remind commentators that (1) understanding 20th-century Egyptian history is more important than understanding 19th-century European history in understanding the current situation in Egypt (in this sense, 1952, 1956, 1981 in Egypt are more important than 1848, 1968, etc., elsewhere); and (2) to compare in revolutions is to deploy a metaphor (and as John Gaddis, Landscape of History suggests, that is what scientists, from geologists to astrophysicists, do).

Why Egyptian Street Protests?: a University Professor Lays Out the Bullet Points

• First of all, they want a real democracy.
• Another issue is the use of torture by the police, who are protected by the Emergency Law.
• The third is corruption.
• Connected to the corruption is the bureaucratic inefficiency.
• The last problem is the poverty.

("A Short Primer on Egypt Now," by guest post by Noor Khan, American Footprints, January 29th, 2011)  Professor Ulrich recommends We are all Khaled Said which includes latest video links.

Liberation 1944, 2011

• The Egyptian tanks, the delirious protesters sitting atop them, the flags, the 40,000 protesters weeping and crying and cheering in Freedom Square and praying around them, the Muslim Brotherhood official sitting amid the tank passengers. Should this be compared to the liberation of Bucharest? Climbing on to an American-made battle tank myself, I could only remember those wonderful films of the liberation of Paris. A few hundred metres away, Hosni Mubarak's black-uniformed security police were still firing at demonstrators near the interior ministry. It was a wild, historical victory celebration, Mubarak's own tanks freeing his capital from his own dictatorship.
• In the pantomime world of Mubarak himself – and of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Washington – the man who still claims to be president of Egypt swore in the most preposterous choice of vice-president in an attempt to soften the fury of the protesters – Omar Suleiman, Egypt's chief negotiator with Israel and his senior intelligence officer, a 75-year-old with years of visits to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and four heart attacks to his credit. How this elderly apparatchik might be expected to deal with the anger and joy of liberation of 80 million Egyptians is beyond imagination. When I told the demonstrators on the tank around me the news of Suleiman's appointment, they burst into laughter. (Robert Fisk, "Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship," Sunday, 30 January 2011, The Independent)

Blog Update: New Issues, New Sites

Events in Tunisia, Yemen, and Egypt require a few changes to the blogs I read and recommend.  I have added the following:

• Al Jazeera Transparency Unit
• Arabist
• Blog Stephen A. Cook (CFR)
• Democracy Arsenal
• EAWorld View
• Lede (New York Times)
• Mark Lynch (FP)
• Octavia Nasr / Blog

Après moi le déluge?

An apocryphal comment by Louis XV, but perhaps the dismissal of Turgot, Calonne, Brienne, or Necker (that is the rearrangement of the chairs on the deck of the Titannic) might be the better historical metaphor to today's news from Egypt.

• 1776 Louis XVI dismisses his finance minister, Turgot 
• 1786 August 20: Finance minister Calonne informs Louis that the royal finances are insolvent 
• April 8: Louis dismisses both Calonne & the keeper of the seals, or minister of justice, Miromesnil, in an attempt to break the impasse.
• April 30: The Archbishop of Toulouse & vocal leader of the higher clergy, Loménie de Brienne is appointed chief minister of state 
• 1788 June: Outcry over the enforced reforms ensues, & courts across France refuse to sit 
• July 5: Brienne begins to consider calling an Estates-General 
• Late August: Brienne resigns, & Jacques Necker replaces him as Minister of Finance.
• 1789 June 30: Large crowd storms left bank prison & frees mutinous French Guards 
• July 11: Necker dismissed by Louis; populace sack the monasteries, ransack aristocrats homes in search of food & weapons 
• July 14: Storming of the Bastille(adapted from Timeline of the French Revolution)
• 2011 Jan. 29. Mubarak appoints the former head of Egyptian military intelligence (Omar Suleiman) his vice president (and therefore likely successor). He appoints the Air Force Chief of Staff (Ahmad Shafiq) as prime minister. ("Mubarak’s Response to Demand for end of Military Rule," 01/29/2011, Informed Comment by Juan Cole)

Wild in the Streets (1968, 2011)




Is youth rebellion always good or always bad?

• Some political scientists warn of the dark side of the "youth bulge." A study by Population Action International asserted that 80 percent of the world's conflicts between 1970 and 1999 started in countries where 60 percent of the population was under 30. ("The Arab World's Youth Army," by Ellen Knickmeyer, Foreign Policy, January 27, 2011)

Some indications of hope from the young protestors:

• Now Al Jazeera is reporting that young protesters have formed a human chain around the museum to protect it against looting. It seems for now that this treasure trove of human ingenuity and the natural world's wonders is in no immediate danger. ("Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Black Hole or Another Day of Revolution," January 28, 2011, Scott Lucas, EAWorldView) 

But the riot police are generally young as well (as here from Liberation Square, Cairo).  The median age in Tunisia is 30; the median age in Cairo is 24; the median age in Yemen is less than 18.  More than 2/3 the population of Yemen is under 24.  (source: 29 January 2011, "What next in Yemen?," by Ginny Hill, BBC)

Iran Film Director Jafar Panahi Sentenced to Prison, Artistic Ban

Amnesty International notes the following with a call for action and signatures

• Jafar Panahi, an internationally celebrated film director who won the coveted "Golden Lion" prize at the Venice Film Festival for his 2000 film "Dayareh" (Circle), has been sentenced to six years in prison plus a twenty-year ban on all his artistic activities—including film making, writing scripts, traveling abroad and speaking with media. Jafar Panahi was convicted of “propaganda against the state” for having exercised his right to peaceful freedom of expression through his film-making and political activism. He was specifically accused of making an anti-government film without permission and inciting opposition protests after the disputed 2009 presidential election. Mr. Panahi's artistic collaborator, Mohammad Rasoulof, was also sentenced to six years in prison. (see also, Offside Director Remains Imprisoned)

The Dangers of Reification (Verdinglichung) of Riot and Rebellion


Green Revolution, Jasmine Revolution, Twitter Revolution, Pink Revolution 1, and Pink Revolution 2:  some are, some aren't.  The revolution happens after the riots.  And it is difficult for journalists to know.  The danger is not just in our pronouncements.  It is also on the streets.

The Real Palestine Papers?

The Gaza Youth's Manifesto for Change.

Michael Steele Removed from the RNC

Well, yes.  But this is regarding another regime change.  Make that men remove torn photo of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunis (from "Tunisians celebrate their freedom as country slides towards lawlessness," by Adrian Blomfield, 16 Jan 2011, The Telegraph)

The BBC has a useful timeline of the Tunisian twitter/wikileaks/social network rebellion/revolution:

• 17 Dec: Man sets himself on fire in Sidi Bouzid over lack of jobs, sparking protests
• 24 Dec: Protester shot dead in central Tunisia
• 28 Dec: Protests spread to Tunis
• 8-10 Jan: Dozens of deaths reported in crackdown on protests
• 12 Jan: Interior minister sacked
• 13 Jan: President Ben Ali promises to step down in 2014
• 14 Jan: Mr Ben Ali dissolves parliament after new mass rally, then steps down and flees
• 15 Jan: Parliamentary Speaker Foued Mebazaa sworn in as interim president (16 January 2011, "Tunis gun battles erupt after Ben Ali aide arrested")

The Revolution Will Be Televised (or Live Blogged)

("Tunisia Revolution LIVE UPDATES," Huffington Post, 01/14/11)

Andrew Sullivan also drew attention to the following:

• As in the recent so-called "Twitter Revolutions" in Moldova and Iran, there was clearly lots wrong with Tunisia before Julian Assange ever got hold of the diplomatic cables. Rather, WikiLeaks acted as a catalyst: both a trigger and a tool for political outcry. Which is probably the best compliment one could give the whistle-blower site. ("The First WikiLeaks Revolution?," by Elizabeth Dickinson, January 13, 2011, Foreign Policy)

Tunisia and Belarus compared?

(December 20, 2010, "Video of Opposition Protests in Belarus," by Robert Mackey, The Lede, New York Times)




("Tunisia: What Does It Mean?," 14 Jan 2011, Andrew Sullivan, Daily Dish)

It Is Official (at least according to President Ahmadinejad): The Cape Verde Islands Are British!

The President's speech at Hamedan (where he may or may not have been attacked) included the following bit of historical geography news:

• Look at this country of England — a small island west of Africa. These people made weapons and ships; they attacked people; they subjugated India, whose area is 10 times the size of England, whose populations is tens of times larger! (August 4, 2010, "The Iranian President’s Geography Lesson," by Robert Mackey, The Lede)

(It would make for longer days in Winter in Lincolnshire.)

Rereading Tehran

Misreading Tehran is a fine series of articles by Iranian-Americans looking back over the past year of the so-called Green Revolution. (Foreign Policy, 7 June 2010).  As much as these are from outside Iran, they often still point to the importance of "granular details from Iran" to get a fuller story.  ("What the West Isn't Hearing About: To understand the big stories of the last year in Iran, we need better access to the little stories," by Azadeh Moaveni, July/August 2010)

 (picture from "A Year Later," the Daily Dish, 8 June 2010)

Notes of Evin Prison outside Tehran

• After the Iranian Presidential elections of 12 June 2009, and subsequent widespread political arrests, the visitation pattern of political prisoners’ families changed drastically from previous years. The number of political prisoners increased and therefore the number of families who were in search of their arrested loved ones also increased. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has conducted several interviews with the families of political prisoners regarding the details of their visits to Evin prison. (for a summary of their descriptions of Evin Prison, see "Evin Prison: Visiting political prisoners," 4 March 2010)
  

Offside Director Remains Imprisoned

• Internationally acclaimed Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, slated to serve as a jury member at the [63rd Cannes Film Festival] festival, couldn't attend because he was being held in Tehran’s Evin prison....

• In March 2010, plainclothes security officials raided Panahi’s Tehran home and arrested him along with his wife, daughter and 15 house guests. Though Iranian authorities shortly released the others, they held on to Panahi, accusing him of “making a film against the regime following the post-election events," according to the French daily Le Figaro.
• Despite this, the prosecutor's office in Tehran argues that Panahi’s imprisonment has no political motive.
• "The arrest of Jafar Panahi is not because he is an artist or for political reason[s]," prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi told the Iranian Students News Agency....
• Authorities had previously arrested Panahi, a supporter of the protest movement that emerged after last year's disputed presidential elections held in June, for participating in a memorial service for Neda Agha-Soltan, the young woman killed in July 2009 allegedly at the hands of a pro-government militiaman. ("Iran: Cannes 2010: Imprisoned filmmaker Jafar Panahi is honored at film festival," Babylon & Beyond, May 13, 2010)

The director's arrest and imprisonment is so counterproductive for the current Iranian regime, as Panahi's "Offside" (2006) is a film which suggest the richness and vitality of modern Iranian culture.
(see "Jafar Panahi on Offside," Payvand's Iran News 7 March 2007)

Cliff Notes for the Revolutionary Guard

Prompted by Sec. of State, Hillary Clinton's statement of fact that Iran is becoming a military dictatorship.

IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD

• Founded 1979
• Numbers about 125,000 troops
• Operates independently of the regular army
• Controls the Basij militia, Iran's "moral police"
• Commercial arm involved in construction, oil exports, petrol imports, defence and transport contracts
• The Qods Force special unit is thought to back armed groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon Source: Reuters (via BBC, 15 Feb. 2010)
  

• Some analysts believe IRGC influence in the political arena amounts to the irreversible militarization of Iran's government. Others, like Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, suggest the guard's power has grown to exceed that of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who legally has final say on all state matters. But Frederic Wehrey, an adjunct senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and the co-author of a recent study on the IRGC, notes that the Revolutionary Guard is far from a cohesive unit of likeminded conservatives. Instead, he says, it's a heavily factionalized institution with a mix of political aspirants unlikely to turn on their masters. ("Who are Iran’s Revolutionary Guards?," by Greg Bruno, Council on Foreign Relations, MSNBC, 23 June 2009)
  

Movement within the Regime?

• A leading conservative rival to Ahmadinejad, lawmaker Ali Mottahari, warned that Iran was not yet out of the clear.
• "We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes," he said in an interview with Khabaronline (in Persian), the news website affiliated with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani. "The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance...."
• Mottahari recently called on opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to stop calling for protests for a bit and let government insiders like him take care of Ahmadinejad and his ilk.
• In the interview he seemed to be auditioning to replace them, echoing their calls to restore civil liberties. "The government should respect social freedoms and stop its press bans," he said. "The government should also take action to secure the release of political prisoners and create a climate of friendship and affection."(LA Times. Babylon & Beyond, "IRAN: A day after 22 Bahman rally, a conservative Ahmadinejad rival opens fire," February 12, 2010)

(Note: Babylon & Beyond has a full post-mortem of the Iranian government's actions and those of the Green movement on 22 Bahman here.)

Iran: Prisoners Issue Statement in wake of 22 Bahman

• On February 11th, the regime once again showed its true face. It used all its power to prevent people from peacefully expressing their righteous demands in the streets.
• Not only did they fill every step of the streets with security and plainclothes forces, but they did not spare us, the prisoners, either. They took several prisoners such as Mansour Osanloo (the head of the bus driver union) and Arzhang Davoodi (long time political prisoner) to solitary confinement, and denied all prisoners every form of communication with the outside world, such as telephone calls and visitation. They even closed the gates of all sections, halls, and cells, thus depriving us from breaks in the open air....
• As the entire world witnessed, the regime blocked people’s way to freedom, and even to Azadi (Freedom) Square. We wish that the international and human rights organizations, and in particular, governments, would realize that lack of freedom is Iranian people’s essential problem with the regime. The solution to all the problems that foreign governments have with this regime lies in Iranian people’s freedom, and we hope that they would see the necessity of taking action and seriously supporting the Iranians. (Persian2English, "Gohardasht Prisoners Issue Statement," February 13, 2010)

Gohardasht prison in Karaj includes, among others,

• arrested Baha’is — Leva Khanjani, Babak Mobash-sher, Payam Fana’ian, Nika Hoveyda’i, Jinous Sobhani, Artin Ghazanfari, Farid Rohani, Ahmad Rohani, Ibrahim Shad-Mehr and Zavosh Shad-Mehr — who have been arrested on charges of participation in Ashura observances and organizing [Baha'i] gatherings, have not had any visits with their families....
• Some time ago, the Tehran Prosecutor-General [Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi] had talked about finding weapons and bullets in the homes of the arrested Baha’is. The Baha’i International Community has vehemently denied these accusations, and declared that the arrested Baha’is were innocent. ("Transfer of arrested Baha’is to Gohar-dasht prison in Karaj," January 26, 2010, Iran Press Watch)

Friday-morning quarterbacking Iran

Juan Cole's assessment is pessimistic, but worth reading in full.

• What I would say is that coming off the Ashura protests, the Green Movement had the momentum and the regime was under pressure. The rallies had spread to a number of cities, including conservative ones like Isfahan and Mashhad. The crowds seemed to be turning on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• After Thursday, the momentum is now with the regime. Either the Revolutionary Guards are getting better at countering the dissidents or movement members are tired of getting beaten up with no measurable political impact. As I said yesterday, the regime blocked the 'flashmobs' by interfering with electronic communication (google mail, Facebook, Twitter). They also thought strategically about how to control the public space of major cities, resorting to plainclothesmen rather than just uniformed police squads....
• The Green Movement cannot depend on being able to go on indefinitely mounting big public demonstrations, especially since the cost to the protesters is rising, with beatings, firing of live ammunition, mass arrests and executions. It also cannot continue to depend on informal networks to organize, since these can be fairly easily disrupted.
• Mir Hosain Musavi has said he refuses to form a political party. There are such parties or at least vague groupings in Iranian politics (former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani leads one), and they have members of parliament. By refusing to develop a grassroots political organization, Musavi may be making the same mistake as former president Abo'l-Hasan Bani-Sadr, who was toppled from the presidency in summer, 1981, because he declined to seek a mass organization, whereas his enemies had the "Hezbollah" popular militia and the Islamic Republican Party that grouped key hard line clerics. Ahmadinejad has his Alliance of Builders in Tehran, and is backed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij paramilitary, and other security forces. Musavi has the little flashmobs who couldn't, at least on Thursday. (Informed Comment, "How the Iranian Regime Checkmated the Green Dissidents on a Crucial Day," 12 Feb. 2010)
  

Also, I think we cannot discount the overwhelming force on that day.

Isfahan: Protests outside Tehran

• Isfahan (Noon): Large crowds gathered and were trapped on Si o Se pol Bridge. Since the people had no way to escape, security forces arrested large numbers of them. Not even the children and elderly were spared: a 12 years-old, as well as old men and women, have been arrested. The police are using extreme violence hitting people with chains, hoses, and batons.
• The shops are closed in the area. No shots have been fired, but the security forces are generating loud aerial sounds to intimidate people.
• Most people in their cars showed their solidarity by honking their horns.
• Slogans chanted: “Have no fear, we’re all in this together” and “Death to Dictator.”
• People report that they gather, chant slogans, then get dispersed. But they eventually gather again. The people have a strong presence in the area. ("Isfahan: Despite Intimidation and Violence by Security Forces, People Resist," Iran News Agency, Translation by: Siavosh J., Persian2English.com, 11 February 2010)

It is a serious time, but this must count as funny, yes?

• Iran has issued a new stamp to commemorate the massive turnout in the country's 10th presidential election held on June 12, 2009....
• "The stamp will be the symbol of the Iranian nation's unity and their massive turnout in the presidential election," [Iran's Minister of Communication and Information Technology, Mohammad Soleimani] added. ("Iran issues new stamp to commemorate election," 13 Aug 2009, Iran's PressTV)
  

22 Bahman Coverage

• Enduring America’s coverage of the marches of 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, will start at 0600 GMT (9:30 a.m. in Tehran)...[:] a LiveBlog with the quickest updates on events, the latest videos, and snap analyses throughout the day.... ("Iran: Enduring America’s Coverage of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas, 10 Feb. 2010, Enduring America)
  

countdown

• What we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multihttp://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=27755667&postID=6680908798766513271tudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.
• “From top” and “from below”: it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman. (10 Feb. 2010, "Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran, Enduring America)
  

Preparing for Thursday (watching the Iranian Government)

• So much is happening in these last days before Feb 11th. The internet is almost not working in much of Tehran or it is so slow that most people cant even open their Gmail or Yahoo. The Greens have announced alternative routs to Azadi sq. if the Gov. blocks all the entrances to the main street. But the Gov. has installed 100s of massive speakers alongside the street of the march so people's chanting cannot be heard. They also have called on Basijis from other cities to come to Tehran and have assigned a major intersection to each group to prevent the Greens from entering the official protest. This video shows city workers taking away the garbage cans to prevent people from blocking the roads with them in case of clashes. The Green girl is explaining how funny it is that the Gov. has started a garbage bin campaign out of fear. She and her friend laugh at them. (08 Feb 2010, "The Revolutionary Guards Prepare For Thursday," Daily Dish, Andrew Sullivan)
  

the whole world is watching (and taking names of the oppressors)

• The government has vowed to suppress further protests with even greater force than before, while a hardline cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, secretary of the powerful guardian council, has called for more executions to deter further protests. "There is no room for Islamic mercy," Jannati told a recent Friday prayer sermon at Tehran University.

• At the heart of such confrontational rhetoric is a battle for the very soul of the revolution and what it was designed to achieve. While supporters of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, swear loyalty to the concept of velayat-e faqih (leadership by an Islamic jurisprudence) devised by him, Mousavi and Karroubi have been suggesting with increasing boldness that the revolution has failed to free Iranians from tyranny. In fact, they claim, "leadership" by an Islamic jurisprudence has merely instituted a new form of political bondage. ("The Iranian revolution grinds to a halt on the eve of its anniversary," by Robert Tait and Noushin Hoseiny, The Observer, Sunday 7 February 2010)

Green?: What Green?

• Scott Lucas, who runs the blog “Enduring America,” and Golnaz Esfandiari, a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, pointed out that Iran’s president had appeared before two backdrops that featured images in which Iran’s national colors seem to have been reimagined to remove any trace of the color green, which is the country’s opposition has adopted as its symbol.
• (Lucas:) I don’t want to say the Government is in any way threatened by the Green movement, but somebody has apparently decided that, when President Ahmadinejad is speaking, the Iranian flag no longer has to be red, white, and green. (February 2, 2010, "Puzzling Over a Red, White and Blue Iran," by Robert Mackey, the Lede, New York Times News Blog)

Day of Remembrance/Reckoning Inches Closer

• The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, February 11, is commemorated in Iran as a day to recognize the Iranian people’s stand against all forms of dictatorship. That day 31 years ago was one of the bloodiest of the Iranian uprising that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty and its dictatorial regime. This year, the government expects massive popular protests to erupt as Iranians continue to hijack official government holidays to demand their rights and demonstrate their frustration with the disputed June 2009 election that put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back in office for another four years. (“Revolution is not Completed; Dictatorship Still Exists,” February 2, 2010, niacINSIGHT)
  

Stability and Guidance in an Unstable Regime

Mir Hussein Moussavi: “The majority of people believed in the beginning of the revolution that the roots of dictatorship and despotism were abolished. I was one of them, but now I don’t have the same beliefs. You can still find the elements and roots that lead to dictatorship.” ("Opposition Hardens Line Inside Iran," by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, February 2, 2010)