Movement within the Regime?

• A leading conservative rival to Ahmadinejad, lawmaker Ali Mottahari, warned that Iran was not yet out of the clear.
• "We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes," he said in an interview with Khabaronline (in Persian), the news website affiliated with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani. "The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance...."
• Mottahari recently called on opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to stop calling for protests for a bit and let government insiders like him take care of Ahmadinejad and his ilk.
• In the interview he seemed to be auditioning to replace them, echoing their calls to restore civil liberties. "The government should respect social freedoms and stop its press bans," he said. "The government should also take action to secure the release of political prisoners and create a climate of friendship and affection."(LA Times. Babylon & Beyond, "IRAN: A day after 22 Bahman rally, a conservative Ahmadinejad rival opens fire," February 12, 2010)

(Note: Babylon & Beyond has a full post-mortem of the Iranian government's actions and those of the Green movement on 22 Bahman here.)

Iran: Prisoners Issue Statement in wake of 22 Bahman

• On February 11th, the regime once again showed its true face. It used all its power to prevent people from peacefully expressing their righteous demands in the streets.
• Not only did they fill every step of the streets with security and plainclothes forces, but they did not spare us, the prisoners, either. They took several prisoners such as Mansour Osanloo (the head of the bus driver union) and Arzhang Davoodi (long time political prisoner) to solitary confinement, and denied all prisoners every form of communication with the outside world, such as telephone calls and visitation. They even closed the gates of all sections, halls, and cells, thus depriving us from breaks in the open air....
• As the entire world witnessed, the regime blocked people’s way to freedom, and even to Azadi (Freedom) Square. We wish that the international and human rights organizations, and in particular, governments, would realize that lack of freedom is Iranian people’s essential problem with the regime. The solution to all the problems that foreign governments have with this regime lies in Iranian people’s freedom, and we hope that they would see the necessity of taking action and seriously supporting the Iranians. (Persian2English, "Gohardasht Prisoners Issue Statement," February 13, 2010)

Gohardasht prison in Karaj includes, among others,

• arrested Baha’is — Leva Khanjani, Babak Mobash-sher, Payam Fana’ian, Nika Hoveyda’i, Jinous Sobhani, Artin Ghazanfari, Farid Rohani, Ahmad Rohani, Ibrahim Shad-Mehr and Zavosh Shad-Mehr — who have been arrested on charges of participation in Ashura observances and organizing [Baha'i] gatherings, have not had any visits with their families....
• Some time ago, the Tehran Prosecutor-General [Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi] had talked about finding weapons and bullets in the homes of the arrested Baha’is. The Baha’i International Community has vehemently denied these accusations, and declared that the arrested Baha’is were innocent. ("Transfer of arrested Baha’is to Gohar-dasht prison in Karaj," January 26, 2010, Iran Press Watch)

Friday-morning quarterbacking Iran

Juan Cole's assessment is pessimistic, but worth reading in full.

• What I would say is that coming off the Ashura protests, the Green Movement had the momentum and the regime was under pressure. The rallies had spread to a number of cities, including conservative ones like Isfahan and Mashhad. The crowds seemed to be turning on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• After Thursday, the momentum is now with the regime. Either the Revolutionary Guards are getting better at countering the dissidents or movement members are tired of getting beaten up with no measurable political impact. As I said yesterday, the regime blocked the 'flashmobs' by interfering with electronic communication (google mail, Facebook, Twitter). They also thought strategically about how to control the public space of major cities, resorting to plainclothesmen rather than just uniformed police squads....
• The Green Movement cannot depend on being able to go on indefinitely mounting big public demonstrations, especially since the cost to the protesters is rising, with beatings, firing of live ammunition, mass arrests and executions. It also cannot continue to depend on informal networks to organize, since these can be fairly easily disrupted.
• Mir Hosain Musavi has said he refuses to form a political party. There are such parties or at least vague groupings in Iranian politics (former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani leads one), and they have members of parliament. By refusing to develop a grassroots political organization, Musavi may be making the same mistake as former president Abo'l-Hasan Bani-Sadr, who was toppled from the presidency in summer, 1981, because he declined to seek a mass organization, whereas his enemies had the "Hezbollah" popular militia and the Islamic Republican Party that grouped key hard line clerics. Ahmadinejad has his Alliance of Builders in Tehran, and is backed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij paramilitary, and other security forces. Musavi has the little flashmobs who couldn't, at least on Thursday. (Informed Comment, "How the Iranian Regime Checkmated the Green Dissidents on a Crucial Day," 12 Feb. 2010)
  

Also, I think we cannot discount the overwhelming force on that day.

Isfahan: Protests outside Tehran

• Isfahan (Noon): Large crowds gathered and were trapped on Si o Se pol Bridge. Since the people had no way to escape, security forces arrested large numbers of them. Not even the children and elderly were spared: a 12 years-old, as well as old men and women, have been arrested. The police are using extreme violence hitting people with chains, hoses, and batons.
• The shops are closed in the area. No shots have been fired, but the security forces are generating loud aerial sounds to intimidate people.
• Most people in their cars showed their solidarity by honking their horns.
• Slogans chanted: “Have no fear, we’re all in this together” and “Death to Dictator.”
• People report that they gather, chant slogans, then get dispersed. But they eventually gather again. The people have a strong presence in the area. ("Isfahan: Despite Intimidation and Violence by Security Forces, People Resist," Iran News Agency, Translation by: Siavosh J., Persian2English.com, 11 February 2010)

22 Bahman Coverage

• Enduring America’s coverage of the marches of 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, will start at 0600 GMT (9:30 a.m. in Tehran)...[:] a LiveBlog with the quickest updates on events, the latest videos, and snap analyses throughout the day.... ("Iran: Enduring America’s Coverage of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas, 10 Feb. 2010, Enduring America)
  

countdown

• What we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multihttp://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=27755667&postID=6680908798766513271tudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.
• “From top” and “from below”: it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman. (10 Feb. 2010, "Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran, Enduring America)