Sunday, June 07, 2015

So It Is Today: HDP?


Regarding Turkey’s general election, today, June 7, pundits have focused on whether the Kurdish alliance, HDP, can get more than 10% of the vote (polls show them at exactly that level). "A swing of less than 1% of the national vote could decide whether the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is forced to form a coalition government...leaving it unable to fulfill President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s longstanding desire to strengthen the presidency.... The uncertainty this time around is attributable to the predominantly Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)....This year...the Kurdish political movement has decided to field its candidates as members of a single party. This electoral strategy, though risky, could yield large rewards, with the outcome holding significant implications for the party’s immediate fortune – as well as for Turkey’s long-term prospects." (Sinan Ülgen, “Turkey’s Critical Election,” Project Syndicate, June 2, 2015).

I have no clear idea whether the Kurds, however allied, will prevail in this 10+% quest. In any case, the stakes are high. "If the bid fails...Erdoğan would have a carte blanche for his presidential plans, and the Kurds would have no parliamentary voice. This, in turn, could spur Kurds to unilaterally declare a regional parliament." (Nora Fisher Onar, “Turkey’s Future: Erdoğan, Elections and the Kurds,” openDemocracy, April 7, 2015) There are several sites for live updates on the election, as well as #TwitterKurds and #TurkeyElections.


Sunday, April 05, 2015

"Fast-forward"?: Religious Roots, the Middle East, and the Various Izidis

New journalist report on Shia and Sunni includes the sentence: "Fast-forward more than a thousand years, and the situation is worse than ever." (Clarissa Ward, “​In Detail: Sunnis vs. Shiites,” April 5, 2015). That is where the historian parts company with the journalist. "Fast-forward" is another way of stating "Yada, yada, yada" - stuff happened. I'm pretty sure whatever happened in the last century impacts day-to-day politics more than the previous millennium, even if actors in present conflicts self-fashion their identities using terms from that previous millennium. To be fair, that is exactly what Clarissa Ward goes on to state in her very brief, but wide-ranging report. But understanding for both players and commentators gets difficult the more you delve into recent events, alliances, and reformulations. Thus, a comment on the CBS twitter-feed in response to this story includes the hashtag . Well, perhaps. But, given the paucity of atheists in the Middle East (though see “Being an Atheist in the Middle East,” Erasmus (Religion & Public Policy): The Economist, March 3, 2015), this is a bit like stating people-  or at least the majority of people - poison everything. Which is true enough, but only takes us so far.

Which brings us to the Yazidis, who most of us in the West, or, really, anywhere, first encountered besieged on a mountain top last year. Their beliefs I believe we would call syncretic, although, thinking historically, most religions are syncretic. They are also relatively few in number, probably less than a million, although the headcount on a persecuted religion is always a bit iffy. They have a strong belief in the role of an angel who takes the form of a peacock, which is a beautiful symbol of immortality, whatever your beliefs (a symbol that can be found in early Christian, some would argue pre-Christian, art such as this 4th-century ambulatory mosaic in a Roman mausoleum). Partially because the name of one of their angels in translation is close to the name of Satan, they are considered devil worshippers by some fundamentalists of both Christianity and Islam. The misunderstanding is more profound:
  • Sunni extremists, such as IS, believe it derives from Yazid ibn Muawiya (647-683), the deeply unpopular second caliph of the Umayyad dynasty. Modern research, however, has clarified that the name is nothing to do with the loose-living Yazid, or the Persian city of Yazd, but is taken from the modern Persian "ized", which means angel or deity. The name Izidis simply means "worshippers of god", which is how Yazidis describe themselves. (Who, What, Why: Who Are the Yazidis?,” Magazine Monitor: BBC News, August 8, 2014)
This misunderstanding might serve as a metaphor for lumping and categorizing that takes place by actors in and commentators on Middle East conflicts. All consider themselves to be Izidi, "worshippers of God," but few recognize their enemies to be such. How the local, the neighbor got to be the Other, the enemy is then the question. Fast-forwarding through the last 1,000 years probably doesn't help us understand that.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Canaries or Red Herrings?

Though reviewer Worth is more pessimistic, I'll plump for it as reality for now:
  •  Was the flowering of liberal Arab youth an illusion? Juan Cole, a prominent liberal blogger and scholar of the Middle East, thinks not. In The New Arabs, he argues that the upheavals of 2011 were the product of a new generation of activists that has already wrought deep social changes, and is likely—eventually—to reshape much of the Middle East in its own image: more democratic, more tolerant, and more secular.
Robert F. Worth, “The Pillars of Arab Despotism (review Essay),The New York Review of Books, October 9, 2014.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Mosul & the Lessons of History: Perhaps


MapMosul seized by a small group proclaiming a Sunni pan-state across Syria and Iraq. And now Kurds claiming back Kirkuk from the Arabisation that Saddam Hussein instituted on that northern Iraqi city ("Iraqi Kurds 'fully control Kirkuk' as army flees," by Paul Wood, BBC News, 12 June 2014).   "The Fall of Mosul and the False Promises of Modern History," by Juan Cole, History News Network, 11 June 2014, lays blame for recent events on, well, just about everyone.  "Hold Your Horses, Iraq Is Not About to Fall … Yet," by Douglas Ollivant, Foreign Policy, June 12, 2014, is not unwilling to apportion blame for the "known-unknowns." But what has happened is not yet clear, so perhaps assigning the lessons of why it happened might be a bit premature.

Mongols at the gates of Baghdad in 1258 … from the Jami al-Tawarikh by Rashid al-Din, c 1310.A slightly longer timescale for Iraqi cities is provided in "Baghdad by Justin Marozzi – review," by Christopher de Bellaigue, The Guardian, 11 June 2014, which reviews a new book beginning when "the city was founded by the Abbasid caliph Mansur in 762," and including (left) when the Mongols were at the gates in 1258.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Contextualizing Arab Spring - Now


"Confronting Amnesia and Political Change in the Arab World," by Martin Evans, History Today, Blog, 10 June 2014, highlights a new movie, They Are the Dogs, which appears to be about a worker released from prison for something that did or did not happen in the 1980s right at the time that Morocco is spiraling into crisis. (The article includes a trailer in English.) Morocco didn't have a "Spring," but the atmosphere on the streets is similar to that in Egypt or Tunisia.




  • "The film follows three members of a television crew as they set off to report on the protest movements in Morocco in February 2011. Intrigued by the strange mannerisms of an old man called Majhoul, the crew decide to focus their report on him. As they follow him through the backstreets of urban Casablanca, the crew discover the story of a man who has just been released from prison 30 years after a police raid during Morocco's 1981 food riots, and who is completely lost in a modern Morocco in the midst of the Arab Spring."
The UK premier of the film is at a conference on 16 June. Wish I could be there.

Wednesday, June 04, 2014

Iran: Another Year, another Spring

"Tehran Postcard: What Has Rouhani Changed In One Year?," by Claudio Gallo, Worldcrunch, 3 June 2014 (originally La Stampa, 27 May 2014) 
  • "'The atmosphere here has gotten better,' says Nima. 'The morality police aren’t harassing us so much anymore, and the tourists have come back. But we’re from Isfahan, in the center of the country, and everything there is still closed.'"

Friday, May 09, 2014

"What do we have to do with a revolution?"

Egypt's Tourism Crash Gives Way To Bustling Opium Trade - http://www.worldcrunch.com/culture-society/egypt-039-s-tourism-crash-gives-way-to-bustling-opium-trade/opium-farming-tourism-egyptian-revolution/c3s15827/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsenews#.U2zLn8oo7qA