So It Is Today: HDP?

Regarding Turkey’s general election, today, June 7, pundits have focused on whether the Kurdish alliance, HDP, can get more than 10% of the vote (polls show them at exactly that level). "A swing of less than 1% of the national vote could decide whether the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is forced to form a coalition government...leaving it unable to fulfill President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s longstanding desire to strengthen the presidency.... The uncertainty this time around is attributable to the predominantly Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)....This year...the Kurdish political movement has decided to field its candidates as members of a single party. This electoral strategy, though risky, could yield large rewards, with the outcome holding significant implications for the party’s immediate fortune – as well as for Turkey’s long-term prospects." (Sinan Ülgen, “Turkey’s Critical Election,” Project Syndicate, June 2, 2015).

I have no clear idea whether the Kurds, however allied, will prevail in this 10+% quest. In any case, the stakes are high. "If the bid fails...Erdoğan would have a carte blanche for his presidential plans, and the Kurds would have no parliamentary voice. This, in turn, could spur Kurds to unilaterally declare a regional parliament." (Nora Fisher Onar, “Turkey’s Future: Erdoğan, Elections and the Kurds,” openDemocracy, April 7, 2015) There are several sites for live updates on the election, as well as #TwitterKurds and #TurkeyElections.

From Both Sides Now

Two interesting perspectives on Arab Spring (not exactly an accurate term, but the best we have at the moment).

1) "A closer look at the unrest sweeping the Arab world" (Hürriyet Daily News, April 20 2011)  Summaries of the situation in each nation from Morocco to Syria from a Turkish point of view.  My favorite is the summary of relations with Iran: "Relations established: 1639, when the two countries signed a border agreement. First ambassador sent to Iran in 1835."  True: as long as you consider Turkey to be synonymous with the Ottoman Empire and modern Iran to be synonymous with the Safavid Empire!

2) "Revolution U: What Egypt Learned from the Students who Overthrew Milosevic" (Tina Rosenberg, Foreign Policy, February 16, 2011)