Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Army Remains Key in Revolts

And the organizational structure varies.  But in Iran, as in Libya, the old revolutionary elite distrusts the army, so there is a distinction between the armed forces and the security forces.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls the Basij militia and the intelligence operation.  But they are distinct from the military.  There seems to be mutual distrust on both sides.
  • As I discussed in my articles about the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it is crucial for the Green Movement to gain the support of the rank and file of the IRGC to the extent that they would be unwilling to open fire on peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. (PBS, Frontline, Tehran Bureau, "Fissures in the Revolutionary Guards' Officer Corps?," by Muhammad Sahimi, 01 Mar 2011) 
I wonder, however, if outside pressure will cause them to split or lump together in response?  The latest list of those considered for sanctions is mainly IRGC and Basij heads, but there, I believe, army officers as well.  (February 26, 2011, Laura Rozen, Politico, "European list IDs 80+ Iran militia, police for possible EU human rights sanctions")

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