You write Khadafi, I write Qaddafi, Let's Call the Whole Thing....

Perhaps we will only need it for the history books now.  But, for the record: "A much-circulated 2009 ABCNews.com story found 112 different ways to render the Libyan leader's last name in the Latin alphabet, used in English and most other Western European languages. But, according to this passport, and presumably the Libyan man himself, the accurate Latinized spelling is one of the least commonly used of those 112: Gathafi." (Max Fish, The Atlantic, August 24, 2011, "Rebel Discovers Qaddafi Passport, Real Spelling of Leader's Name")

Surely Juan Cole Deserves Some Credit Too

Tripoli, 22 August (see Immoral Minority, etc.)

Great article by Juan Cole ("Top Ten Myths about the Libya War," 08/22/2011, Informed Comment) who surely gets to take a bow for not only supporting Libyan FF, but supporting the limited air support by the US/UK/France/Nato since before its inception.  From my, admittedly circumscribed view, I would only question 2 of his myths:

1. " The United States led the charge to war. There is no evidence for this allegation whatsoever."  Doesn't this go against the Lizza, New Yorker article which stated, some months ago: "Nonetheless, Obama may be moving toward something resembling a doctrine. One of his advisers described the President’s actions in Libya as 'leading from behind'"? ("The Consequentialist: How the Arab Spring remade Obama’s foreign policy," by Ryan Lizza, New Yorker, May 2, 2011)  Lizza's article (and the adviser) might be wrong, but I don't recall Mr. Cole taking them to task earlier.
2. "The Libyan Revolution was a civil war. It was not, if by that is meant a fight between two big groups within the body politic."  This is more a judgement call.  Charles Tilly's definition of a revolution is when two groups of elites appeal to non-elites and the two blocks fight to control state apparatus.  In a revolutionary situation,civil wars often are a stage.  That appears to have happened over the past few months.  I think Cole rightly wants to show that Qaddafi's support among non-elites was not that strong.  I agree.  But, for as long as it lasts, I think we can term this a civil war, because Qaddafi did have some, if limited, support

Those are my caveats to an otherwise outstanding string of great articles on Libya.  Which is why Informed Comment is on My Blog List to the left of this blog.

So What Will Green Square Be Called Next Week? (Update: That was quick, now we know)
From ABC

• Rebel forces are surrounding the Gadhafi compound, Bab al Aziziya, a representative of the rebel government told ABC News.
• Mohamad al Akari, a Transitional National Council advisor, said that if Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafi is still in Tripoli, they believe he is in Bab al Aziziya.
• "Tonight it's over," Akari said.
• Libyan rebel forces are now in Green Square in the heart of Tripoli, according to multiple reports, clashing with government forces. ("Libyan Rebels Say They Have Captured Two of Gadhafi's Sons in Tripoli," by OLIVIA KATRANDJIAN and JEFFREY KOFMAN, ABC News, Aug. 21, 2011)

Update: "Libyan rebels: Unit protecting Gadhafi surrenders," by KARIN LAUB, Associated Press, Updated: 6:36 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 21, 2011)

• TRIPOLI, Libya — A senior rebel official says the military unit in charge of protecting Moammar Gadhafi and the capital Tripoli has surrendered.
• Mahmoud Shammam, the rebel minister of information, told the Associated Press on Sunday that the unit commander "has joined the revolution and ordered his soldiers to drop their weapons."

Update 2: It turns out it has now been renamed, at least in the popular mind, from Green to Martyrs' Square!  That was quick.

Map and Video Show the Rapid Change in Libya

Al Jazeera Maps the Progress of Freedom Fighters in Libya


While an impromptu street demonstration in Tripoli (Al-Dhul Street August 21, 2011) suggests the rapidity (fluidity?) of the change.

"Is it a Revolt?"  "No, Sire, It is a Revolution."


I'm not sure even blogs can keep up.  Sky News Live with its 5 minute news updates might be needed to keep abreast of the race to Gate 27 and beyond.  almost certainly they have seized Mayah, passing Tripoli's defense ring, and moved into parts of the capital from the West.  And the East?

The Latest from NYTimes Lede Blog:

• 5:14 P.M. | Rebels Claim to Capture Qaddafi's Son, Seif al-Islam. The head of Libya's rebel government, the National Transitional Council, just told Al Jazeera that Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, the Libyan leader's influential son, has been captured, Reuters reports....
• 4:57 P.M. | Qaddafi's Guards Reportedly Surrender.  Although there is no word yet on where Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi is, the rebel leadership in Benghazi told Al Arabiya that his security guards have surrendered, Reuters reports.

Time and the Devil...: The Map Tells a Tale in Western Libya

17 August 2011

17 March 2011

This map (left), via Informed Comment (courtesy Iyad Elbaghdadi), gives an idea of what Col Ghaddafi is up against in Western Libya ("Qaddafi Explores Routes to Flee Libya as Rebels Advance," 08/18/2011 by Juan Cole).  Contrast it with the, admittedly more schematic, map to the right (below) from exactly five months earlier.  The story has been one of small villages and crossroads.  But the mountain ridge in the interior is now almost entirely filled with the flags of the opposition TNC.  And now the routes to Tripoli from the West and the South are at the very least contested.  (Juan Cole also reports, "[i]n Sabratha to the west of Zawiya, the Free Libya forces not only completely subdued the city but they also captured the military base and transferred to themselves all the weapons in it.") Most Libyans live in Tripoli and the situation there is uncertain.  But the map suggests the outcome no longer is.

Now: Zawiyah, 18 August 2011

Then: Zawiyah, 11 March 2011

And the latest?: "Libya rebels seize Zawiyah oil refinery." (Aug 18, 2011, by Ulf Laessing and Yvonne Bell, National Post)

Crowdsourcing Fasfous and Mukhabarat

Notes on the Secret Police (mukhabarat) and Informants (fasfous) inside and outside Syria, even from form Mukhabarat themselves:

• Among [those fleeing from Syria to Turkey] last week was a 25-year-old officer with the Mukhabarat secret police, who described how officers were increasingly unhappy at being ordered to kill unarmed protesters.
• "They were all feeling like me. They were all afraid like me but knew they would be killed if they left or if they refused orders," he said.
• Instead they tried to aim their shots in the air.
• He also described bringing protesters – some as young as 13 – into police stations where they were beaten for the entertainment of senior officers. ("Iran snipers in Syria as part of crackdown," Rob Crilly, from Yayladagi, near the Turkish-Syrian border, 15 Aug 2011, The Telegraph)

This particular former Mukhabarat had not revealed his identity to fellow camp dwellers.  But Syrians are starting to make lists of those still working inside Syria.

• In communities across Syria, activists are circulating lists of local government informers....
• Activists insist that the purpose of publishing the lists...is to pressure and isolate those who inform on their neighbours rather than to initiate vigilante justice....
• The regime in Syria has always relied on a network of paid informants – often known as fasfous – to keep the population under control....
• According to one protester from the central Damascus neighbourhood of Midan, being associated with the secret police, or mukhabarat, offered protection, status and a source of income before the protests began. ("Syrian activists name regime informers,", by Abigail Fielding-Smith in Beirut, Financial Times July 28, 2011)

Of course, the terms themselves are of shifting meaning and import (neither official police, nor secret). At least they tend to dress the part, as if in a "B" movie.

• Mind you that English phrase—”secret police”—is doubly misleading when applied to Syria’s cops.... [T]he “Mukhabarat,” [is] a catch-all term uttered only in hushed tones, which encompasses a multitude of agencies with responsibilities like “political security” or “internal security.” In Bashar Assad’s Syria, the Mukhabarat are nothing less than a professional bureaucracy specializing in the production and dissemination of fear....
• The Mukhabarat’s agents are everywhere, inescapable in their unofficial uniform of black leather jackets and dress pants.  That they are easily recognizable points to the second misleading aspect of describing them as “secret police”: Much of the power of the Mukhabarat lies not in its secrecy, but in its visibility. Its personnel mingle with pedestrians on crowded streets, sit in cafes, or just stand on street corners, watching. ("Life Among Syria’s Not-So-Secret Police," by Jonathan Panter, Jasine Report, 14 July 2011)

Combined Action on Several Fronts in Western Libya


Great map from @k_thos, courtesy of Libya 17 February ("Map: Libya last updated August 14," 15 August 2011), which also notes that Libya’s interior minister, Nassr al-Mabrouk Abdullah and family arrived in Cairo signally a possible defection, and includes the second of Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr's amazing reports from Zawiyah  ("Video: Revolutionaries say they control 70% of Zawiyah," 15 August 2011.  For the latter, note the bridge which FF control (or at least are huddled under).  That is one of the last two supply lines to Tripoli.  Perhaps Mr. al-Mabrouk Abdullah knows something.

Certainly, a comment in Al Jazeera's Live Blog a couple days ago, is another tea leave about the endgame.

• Speaking from a prisoner of war camp in the rebel enclave of Misrata, Colonel Wissam Miland said Gaddafi's military hangs together through coercion and mercenary-enforced martial law, but that infighting is rife.
• "I think it will soon collapse," he said, offering a rare glimpse inside Gaddafi's three-pronged loyalist force, made of up army regulars, militia fighters and mercenaries....
• "Within my unit there were a lot of mercenaries," Miland said. "But they are not fighting with the army -- they surround the army. They don't let anyone fall back. If you retreat, they will kill you." ("Saturday, August 13, 2011 - 15:20 - Libya," Al Jazeera Live Blog)

Turns out that the FF Opposition is not the only group with splits and divisions.

The Whole World Is/Will Be/Should Be/Can Be Watching

Interesting story on Local Coordination Committees in Syria on Morning Edition, NPR.  Links to left include now Local Coordination Committees of Syria, and the LCC are now one of the main conduits of news out of that country.