Meanwhile: Syria, Yemen, Bahrain

Syria.  Protests here are more at the stage of Iran than Yemen (or perhaps I should state that the government is more in control like that in Tehran); but they are obviously significant.

• "Protests expectedly started after the Friday prayers in the country and honestly knowing the fist of the regime there, I am surprised by the [extent of] public reaction and also participation....
• "There were protests in Damascus, Aleppo, Daraa, Baniyas, Homs, and Deir El Zor....
• "Of course you can imagine the panic of the regime there, the live ammunition was used directly." (March 19, 2011, "The Friday of Dignity in Syria: The start of revolution," Egyptian Chronicles, by Zeinobia)

(Hamad Mohammed/Reuters, 18 March)

(Joseph Eid/Getty Images, 16 March)

Bahrain.  Here I might mention a story from the Vendee, a protest against the French Revolution in the bocage region in the 1790s.  The Vendeeans refused to go to their local churches after priests that refused the oath of the Civil Constitution of the Clergy were replaced.  Instead, many started meeting outside in front of a large tree in which, it was believed, an image of the Virgin Mary had appeared.  The Vendeeans began meeting in front of the tree at night.  And then they began meeting armed in front of the tree.  Finally, the government supporters (the Jacobins supporting the French Revolution) cut down the tree.  This always struck me as odd, as the Government/Jacobins did not believe in miraculous images of the Virgin Mary.  In any case, the point of comparison is that tearing down the tree did not end the protests, which went on to become a major armed rebellion (Charles Tilly, The Vendee: A Sociological Analysis of the Counter-Revolution of 1793, Harvard University Press, 1976). Anyway, back to Bahrain:

• Authorities in Bahrain have torn down the statue at the centre of Pearl roundabout in the capital, Manama, where pro-democracy protests were held for weeks....
• Al Jazeera's special correspondent reports on the anger sparked off by deaths in the recent violence....
• On Friday Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa, Bahrain's foreign minister, said the demolition of the statue was an effort to erase "bad memories". The statue that was demolished comprised six sails symbolising each of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, holding up a pearl, symbol of the pearl fishing heritage that was the economic mainstay of the region before the discovery of oil.
• "It is a kind of psychological victory for the protesters," said Hussein Oraibi, who works in telecommunications....
• Al Jazeera's correspondent in Bahrain, speaking anonymously for safety reasons, said the monument "was the centre of the protests for a month; it was seen as being symbolic of anti-government sentiment.  It seems rather strange that by removing it there is the thought that that symbolism will disappear ... [The destruction] is very symbolic of that final stage in the last couple of days of this huge great crackdown on the opposition." ("Bahrain tears down protest symbol: Government demolishes statue in the centre of Manama where anti-government movement has gathered," Aljazeera, 18 Mar 2011)

Libya Update: Saturday

Juan Cole notes an Aljazeera Arabic interview:

• Brigadier Gen. Safwat El Zayat (rtd.), an Egyptian military analyst and supporter of the Egyptian revolution, on the military situation in Libya.... Zayat said that pro-Qaddafi armor had moved up from Ajdabiya toward Benghazi in two columns, with the intent of breaching the rebel stronghold’s defenses and occupying the city center. The 32nd Special Forces Brigade, supported by tanks and led by Qaddafi’s son, Khamis, attacked on Friday and Saturday from the southwest. Another brigade, supported by tanks and heavy artillery and led by another Qaddafi son, Saadi, attacked from the southeast....
• Given [the French] air intervention, Gen. Zayat said, the strategy pursued by Qaddafi’s military in the past week could turn out to have been an enormous error. The pro-Qaddafi forces are stretched out over hundreds of miles, far from their supply lines, and are vulnerable to aerial bombardment because they are exposed in the desert. He said that French Mirage jets could fire infrared-seeking air-to-ground missiles that would detect Libyan armor because its temperature signature differed from its desert surroundings, and so could zero in on it. ("French Jets Defend Benghazi," 03/19/2011, Informed Comment)

Guardian has an updated and interactive map

Misratah and Benghazi are under siege according to the current updated map (to the left is an earlier screenshot), and, again according to this map, Ajdabiya is noted as retaken by government forces.

The War on the (Libyan) Ground

Focus is rightly on continued fighting along the Libyan coast - in Misratah (Misuratah, Misrata)in the West and Ajdabiya in the East.  I note reports (Al Manara, translated and summarized in Libya 17 February) of renewed shelling in Zintan (Az-Zintan, Al-Zintan). Zintan was one of the first towns in West Libya to join protests. It is well South of the coastal road, and I worry there are few reporters on the ground in that part of Libya.  (Libyan maps, as before from Iyad El-Baghdadi)

Why Not Syria Too?

Video of clashes in Daraa, #Syria: http://bit.ly/fvHbn4

Andrew Sullivan's Chart Of The Day (Daily Dish, 17 Mar 2011) is The Economist's "interactive index of unrest in the Arab world," which can be adjusted by moving around the weights "The Shoe Thrower's Index" (Economist, 14 March 2011).  Add of bit of literacy and Libya comes out on top. (Twitpic posted February 24, 2011, by rutevera)

Mapping Libya: Update

("Latest maps of Libya with Gaddafi vs National Libyan Council," Sandra from off the Strip, March 5, 2011) Maps (there is another for West Libya) are created and posted by/through iyad_elbaghdadi's Stream

Women and Revolt: Happy International Women's Day

• [T]his year, women across the Middle East and North Africa are highlighting their role in the protest movements that have toppled dictators in Tunisia and Egypt and appear on the verge of pushing through major changes in other places. Twitter and Facebook were filled with messages of support for the women of Egypt and Tunisia, as well as protesters in Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran....
• A Million Woman March was planned for Cairo's Tahrir Square on Tuesday, and activists in Beirut planned their own march against sexual harassment.
• In Iran, opposition leaders called on women to use the occasion of International Women's Day to take to the streets in protest of the ongoing crackdown against anti-government demonstrations. ("Middle East: Protest movements give new energy to International Women's Day," Babylon & Beyond, LA Times, March 8, 2011)

For Iran today, see "Live blog report of International Women’s Day events in Iran," by Saeed Valadbaygi, 8 March 2011(Posters from 25 Bahman)

Mapping Awakening (or at least Relative Youth, Literacy, and Poverty)

The Arabist points to four really useful maps ("The new Arab Awakening," Le Monde diplomatique, March 2011, by Philippe Rekacewicz) including proportion of population with higher education and internet connection, proportion of young among the general population and their illiteracy rate (Col. Qaddafi's regime must have done something correct, as there is almost no illiteracy among the young there; is that correct?), national population and poverty.

UPDATE: Related graphics on population curve of each nation, unemployment, etc. (February 17, 2011. "Challenges Facing Countries Across North Africa and the Middle East," Washington Post)

"Oh my T V C one five, oh oh, T V C one five": Arab Version

Commentators most always associate recent Arab youth revolts with new social media, and have been termed them Facebook Revolutions.  But a study (published in Arab Media and Society, Winter 2010) hints of the role of more traditional media.  To learn what is going on, we could use some Al Jazeera reporting in the Midwest too!  As Hillary Clinton said, "Viewership of Al Jazeera is going up in the United States because it's real news." ("Hillary Clinton Calls Al Jazeera 'Real News,' Criticizes U.S. Media," Huffington Post, 03/3/11)

• Libyan TV services began in 1968....  Tripoli and Benghazi were the only two areas initially covered by television broadcast transmissions....  From 1990, satellite TV was introduced and offered Libyan viewers a more diverse range of programs, which they readily adopted.... These new channels quickly attracted local audiences and supplanted local TV services in public affection....
• Newspaper readership in Libya is lower than in many other Arab countries.... Radio broadcasting...does not have the popularity of television and tends to be used as a source of information about local events.... Television is the most popular medium in Libya.... Satellite TV news is especially popular among young people and they have been attracted most of all by the pan-Arab world channels such as Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya. Libyan people have also displayed a high level of trust in what they see on television news, especially in news programs broadcast by Al Jazeera. ("News Consumption among Young Libyan Adults," Arab Media and Society, Issue 12, Winter 2010, by Mokhtar Elareshi and Barrie Gunter)
  

History/Political Science 101: Comparative Protests

Tripoli

• What we saw today after Friday prayers was a vociferous protest by anti-Gaddafi demonstrators. Then, all of a sudden, pro-government militia and police came in vehicles screeching into the centre of the suburbs, firing dozens of tear gas canisters and baton rounds. 
• The scene was chaotic as people ran away but then they came back, shouting anti-Gaddafi slogans. ("On the Scene," Wyre Davies BBC News, Tajoura, Tripoli, 4 March 2011)

Tehran

• Iranian police have fired tear gas to disperse opposition supporters mounting protests in the capital Tehran. A BBC correspondent in Tehran said large numbers of riot police and militia on motorcycles in the city centre broke up any crowds that formed. The unrest comes a day after websites close to opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi said they had been jailed....The BBC's Mohsen Agsari in Tehran said by early evening the security forces appeared to have full control of the streets.The Basiji militia were chanting victory slogans, he said. (1 March 2011, "Iran: Security forces break up Tehran protests," BBC

Sanaa, Aden

• Yemeni troops killed four demonstrators and wounded seven others on Friday when they fired on an anti-regime rally in the north, officials and Shiite rebels said, as protests raged across the country. The shooting, which came a day after the opposition and clerics offered embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh a smooth exit from power, took place in the village of Semla, 170 kilometres (105 miles) from the capital Sanaa.... Protesters had taken to the streets of the nearby town of Harf Sufyan to criticise corruption and call for a regime change after 30 years of rule by Saleh, said the website. The Zaidi rebels, also known as Huthis, on February 22 joined anti-Saleh protests which erupted across the poverty striken country in January and gained momentum last month....
• In the capital Sanaa, massive crowds gathered for weekly Muslim prayers in a square where anti-Saleh protesters have been camped since February 20. "We will not leave this place until the fall of the corrupt and tyrants," said Yahya al-Dulaimi, the cleric who led the prayers. Organisers said more than 100,000 people were demonstrating in Sanaa on Friday....
• Meanwhile, counter demonstrations organised by Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) party were staged in nearby Tahrir Square, calling for dialogue. "No to chaos, No to sabotage, Yes to dialogue," their banners read. According to CPG leaders, hundreds of thousands were demonstrating in Saleh's favour across Yemen. In the main southern city of Aden, tens of thousands of mourners attended a funeral in Al-Mansura neighbourhood for two protesters killed by security forces during last month's violence, said an AFP correspondent. They carried banners that read, "Leave Ali, for the sake of our martyrs", while chanting, "The people want to overthrow the regime." ("Yemen army shoots dead four protesters," by Hammoud Mounassar, AFP, 4 March 2011)

Baghdad

Baghdadi protester greets police

• With a curfew on cars and bicycles, security tight and a recent history of security forces shooting, beating and detaining demonstrators, around 2,000 people were gathered for protests in Baghdad's Tahrir Square by noon Friday. Once again, they held up signs saying, "All of Us Are One Nation" and "More Services" and "No No to Corruption." Small protests were forming in several cities across the country, including Basra, Dhaqar and Najaf.
• In Baghdad, security was tight as police in riot gear faced the demonstrators, and it was unclear whether crowds would become larger following Friday prayers. Many protesters in the square said they were nervous about staying there considering violence that followed last week's nationwide demonstrations. And as they were before, entire neighborhoods in Baghdad - especially Sunni ones --were blocked by security forces who warned people not to join the demonstrations. ("Iraqis protest again, this time in 'Day of Regret'," by Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post, March 4, 2011)

Embattled Brega

• OPPOSITION forces appeared to have repelled an attack by troops loyal to the Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, in the rebel-controlled east of the country.
• The Libyan troops had struck at the oil installation in the port of Brega near the city of Ajdabiya.
• Plumes of smoke were seen coming from Ajdabiya and witnesses said an arms dump there had been hit by air force planes, supporting the ground force advance on Brega. ("Battle for Brega as Gaddafi launches attacks," JASON KOUTSOUKIS AJDABIYA, The Advocate (Australia), 03 Mar, 2011)

• 1345 GMT: An Al Jazeera English correspondent has just witnessed a regime airplane dropping a bomb on Brega, where Qaddafi forces have been the opposition throughout the day.
• 1320 GMT: An Al Jazeera English correspondent and an eyewitness report on a disorganised, chaotic battle at Brega with the opposition trying to dislodge 200-300 regime fighters who are holed up in the university outside the city. ("Libya (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Battlelines Drawn," March 2, 2011, Scott Lucas, EAWorldView)

Wolves and Leopards

"We're at the Crossroads and this is the Time of Decision / Too much Informers... / Wolves and Leopards are Trying to Kill the Sheep and the Shepherd."  Dennis Brown, 1978.
And in 2011?

• A "mukhbir," or informer, knocking on doors in Cairo, Egypt is the same as the "etelaati" in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran. The Supreme Leader and his supporters are the same as those in Saudi Arabia, who use Wahabi rhetoric to marginalize secular, religious and ethnic minorities. Like the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who uses force against protesters, the leaders of the IRI have no issue in exercising violence against peaceful dissenters, political prisoners, students or labor unions. Every day, hundreds of tortured prisoners of conscience rot in Evin Prison, similar to prisoners in the American-run Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay detention center. Just as the Israeli military oppresses Palestinian political prisoners, the IRI denies access to legal counsel and uses emotional blackmail, torture and murderous tactics on the opposition. We must recognize that the IRI is the essence of an oppressive, militant dictatorship, which sustains itself through its systemized spread of lies, violence and hatred. It debases the image of Islam and subverts the cause of global freedom struggles in Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and elsewhere. ("Build connections to oppose tyranny," letter to the editor, Daily Targum, Rutgers, by Farah Hussain, February 28, 2011) Farah Hussain is a Rutgers College senior majoring in Middle Eastern studies and comparative literature. [Quite an insightful letter.]

"Libya, Libya, Libya!"

Posted 28 February, along with the second part of this video here.  "On 20 of Feb demonstrator toke over main city square then the Gadhafi thugs stormed the area with antiaircraft weapons at the end of the video you will see brave young man unarmed standing on his car challenging Gadhafi forces."

Army Remains Key in Revolts

And the organizational structure varies.  But in Iran, as in Libya, the old revolutionary elite distrusts the army, so there is a distinction between the armed forces and the security forces.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls the Basij militia and the intelligence operation.  But they are distinct from the military.  There seems to be mutual distrust on both sides.

• As I discussed in my articles about the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it is crucial for the Green Movement to gain the support of the rank and file of the IRGC to the extent that they would be unwilling to open fire on peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. (PBS, Frontline, Tehran Bureau, "Fissures in the Revolutionary Guards' Officer Corps?," by Muhammad Sahimi, 01 Mar 2011) 

I wonder, however, if outside pressure will cause them to split or lump together in response?  The latest list of those considered for sanctions is mainly IRGC and Basij heads, but there, I believe, army officers as well.  (February 26, 2011, Laura Rozen, Politico, "European list IDs 80+ Iran militia, police for possible EU human rights sanctions")