Wanted in the West: Better Headline Writers

Anger?, Turmoil?, Unrest?  Framing devices are either old and tired or hard to come by.

"Arab and Middle East revolt - an interactive map"

• Middle East in Revolt (Time Special, with lead article "How Democracy Can Work in the Middle East," by Fareed Zakaria Thursday, Feb. 03, 2011)
• "Anger on the streets: unrest in Iran, Algeria, Yemen, Morocco and China" (Guardian Special, by Nora Fakim in Rabat, Giles Tremlett, Saeed Kamali Dehghan, Tania Branigan in Beijing and agencies, 20 February 2011) "Peaceful demonstrations staged in Morocco but violence breaks out elsewhere in the Middle East and Chinese police crackdown on planned unrest"
• "Arab and Middle East revolt - an interactive map" (Country-by-country guide to the spate of protests across the Middle East, Guardian, by Paddy Allen and Guardian research department, 23 February 2011)
• "Middle East in Turmoil" (interactive map, Washington Post, by Sam Sanders, Wilson Andrews, Feb. 28, 2011)
  

Sullivan's Travels:  Keeping Watch on the Arab (and perhaps Iranian?) 1848

• Wouldn't it be a fanastic development if the uprisings throughout the Arab world rekindled the spirit of June 2009? Khamenei is obviously concerned it might:
• 'Iran has arrested opposition leaders Mirhossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, the opposition website Kaleme said on Monday. "Sources say that they have been arrested and transferred to Heshmatiyeh jail in Tehran," Mousavi's website Kaleme reported.' ("Tehran Begins To Panic?," The Daily Dish, 28 Feb 2011)
  

#Libya map updated 24/2/11 morning; Nalut & Zwara now wit... on Twitpic

#Libya map updated 24/2/11 morning; Nalut & Zwara now wit... on Twitpic

Benghazi and the Champ de Mars Massacre

Shoes Shown as Saif Speaks

Only a deep crisis and shaky grasp of power would cause the Libyan leader's son, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, to make a broadcast (for full text see here) in which he stated that the Libyan army erred in its handling of anti-government protests. As reported in Bloomberg, "in the most serious challenge to Qaddafi’s 41 years of rule in the country, thousands of people demonstrated yesterday in Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city. They were met by gunfire from forces loyal to Qaddafi, Human Rights Watch said, citing reports from witnesses." ("Libya Violence Deepens as Protestors Claim Control of Second-Largest City," by Mariam Fam and Ola Galal, Bloomberg, Feb 21, 2011)

One is reminded of the attempt to stop protesters in the French Revolution.  Turning state forces on the public, only reminds the public that there is little in the existing regime worth keeping.  To paraphrase from Wikipedia, when, in July 1791 a large crowd gathered at the Champ de Mars to sign a petition demanding the removal of King Louis XVI, "the marquis de Lafayette and the National Guard...tried to disperse the crowd. In retaliation, the crowd threw stones at the National Guard. After firing unsuccessful warning shots, the National Guard opened fire directly on the crowd. The exact numbers of dead and wounded are unknown; estimates range from a dozen to fifty."

"Mubarak! Ben Ali! It's now the turn of Seyed Ali!"

Coverage of Iran in the context of the Arab World revolts to its West  (the newest deal, 19 February 2011, "After Tunisia, Egypt, and 25 Bahman, a Clear Shift in Iran's Political Landscape") and in the Arab world itself ("The awakening: As change sweeps through the Middle East, the world has many reasons to fear. But it also has one great hope," The Economist, Feb 17th 2011).  [Note Green bracelet of the Iranian movement on a de facto leader of the Egyptian movement.]

The Seditionists Would Be a Good Name for a Band

And MKO and the like has become for the Iranian regime the equivalent of Muslim Brotherhood in Mubarak Egypt: the go to explanation to tar any protest.

• Tehran is bracing for what are expected to be widespread anti-government protests, but before anyone took to the streets the semi-official Fars News Agency was already warning of violence.
• "The MKO [a banned anti-government group], in collaboration with seditionists, are planning to act according to a scenario in which pocket gatherings in different parts of the city...will carry out massive killings with their armed struggle to create bloodshed," the report said. ("Iran: Tehran braces for violence as state media warns of 'bloodshed,'" LA Times, Babylon & Beyond, February 20, 2011)

There is Ham-fisted and Then There is Butchery

If Bahrain response is ham-fisted, Libyan is butchery. "Helicopters fired at demonstrators and sounds of gunfire rang out Saturday in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi, a doctor who witnessed the incident told CNN." ("Report: Helicopters fire on Libya protesters," February 19th, 2011) Shades of Bến Tre, Vietnam about which in February 1968, a US officer stated: "It became necessary to destroy the town to save it."

Latest Updates from The Day (MidEast Special)

•  19/02/11 at Least 50 People Were Injured Yesterday in Bahrain after Security Forces Opened Fire on Protesters
• 19/02/11 Riot Police Open Fire on Protesters in Yemen
• 19/02/11 William Hague Condemns 'Horrifying Violence' as Police and Snipers Kill Protesters in Libya
• 18/02/11 at Least 4 Dead in Libya Today. Government Building Burnt down in Capital.
• 18/02/11 Security Forces Attack Protesters in Bahrain with Teargas and Rubber Bullets
• 18/02/11 Three Killed in South Yemen Protest

Dark Days in Bahrain and Iran
Nicholas Kristof reports on ham-fisted response to protest in Bahrain:

• The pro-democracy movement has bubbled for decades in Bahrain, but it found new strength after the overthrow of the dictatorships in Tunisia and Egypt. Then the Bahrain government attacked the protesters early this week with stunning brutality, firing tear gas, rubber bullets and shotgun pellets at small groups of peaceful, unarmed demonstrators. Two demonstrators were killed (one while walking in a funeral procession), and widespread public outrage gave a huge boost to the democracy movement.
• King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa initially pulled the police back, but early on Thursday morning he sent in the riot police, who went in with guns blazing. Bahrain television has claimed that the protesters were armed with swords and threatening security. That’s preposterous. I was on the roundabout earlier that night and saw many thousands of people, including large numbers of women and children, even babies. Many were asleep. ("Blood Runs Through the Streets of Bahrain," by NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, New York Times, February 17, 2011)
  

While another report notes a more secret but disturbing response in Iran.  (A posting on Facebook site 25 Bahman, notes "Green Way of Hope Council published a statement inviting all Iranians on the 20th of February to take part in the memorial service of two martyrs who were killed on February 14th.... Ardeshir Amir Arjamand, Moussavi’s vice president, confirmed the call.")

• A main leader of Iran’s opposition was reported missing on Thursday and both the opposition “green movement” and Iran’s hardliners issued calls for street rallies, escalating tensions after the reemergence of street protests and their brutal suppression on Monday.
• The daughters of the missing opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, told an opposition Web site that they had had no word from either of their parents since Tuesday and feared they had been detained. Security forces have surrounded their home, and all communications have been cut.
• On Wednesday, the Web site of another opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi, reported that the house of his eldest son had been raided and damaged by security officers seeking to arrest him. ("Iranian Opposition Leader Missing as Tensions Rise," by The New York Times, February 17, 2011)

By the way, how reliable is this statement from Iranian.com?

• One main development is that the regime can not rely on its revolutionary guards (IRGC)anymore and now mainly relies on the Basij and Ansar Hezbollah militias who are mostly illiterate thugs and criminals hired from mostly rural and poor areas, paid large bonuses to suppress the protesters while their Basij ID gives them free pass to sell drugs, receive government bonuses and in some ways become untouchables.("25 Bahman Updates: The Iranian Democratic Movement Is Matured," by SecularDemocraticIran, 16-Feb-2011)
  

Meanwhile, Elsewhere

• Algeria
• Call for a popular march on February 19 in Algiers (El Watan, 13 Feb. 2011)
• (Babylon & Beyond, "Algeria: Clashes, arrests reported at banned anti-government demonstration," February 12, 2011)
• Iran
• TEHRAN - One of Iran's most prominent opposition leaders was placed under house arrest Thursday, with security agents posted at the entrance saying they would stay there until a possible anti-government protest had passed, the cleric's Web site reported.  "Only his wife is being allowed into the house," Sahamnews.org said. "This probably has to do with the protest scheduled for Monday, Feb. 14." ("Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi placed under house arrest," by Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post, February 11, 2011)
• And, after 25 Bahman (14 February), protests continue: (16 February 2011, BBC, "Iran protests: Clashes at demonstrator's Tehran funeral")
• Libya
• Global Voices in English, "Libya: Protests Begin in Benghazi Ahead of February 17 Day of Wrath," by Amira Al Hussaini, 16 February 2011) 
• ("Violent protests break out in Libya: Clashes reported in eastern city of Benghazi as security forces and government supporters confront demonstrators," Al Jazeera, 16 Feb 2011)
  
• Bahrain (and all of the above)
• ("In Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, protesters take to streets," February 14, 2011, by Ramin Mostaghim and Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times)
  
  
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    A woman shows empty packages of tear gas said to have been used by riot police… (Hamad I Mohammed, Reuters)

Military Officers + The People = Co-Rule?

12:05 CST.  MSNBC discussing whether it is a military coup.  Richard Engel notes it is "a bloodless military coup."

12:00 CST.  Aljazeera has an article on "Egypt's military leadership," which profiles the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (11 Feb 2011)

Defence Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi
11:50 CST.  Anderson Cooper asking Mohamed ElBaradei about how you keep the revolution from being "betrayed" (odd word, evidently coming from a CIA adviser), Mr. ElBaradei answers "the Army must co-rule with the people (my paraphrase).  Uppermost on everyone's mind.

Regime Change = Curriculum Change?

We used to have to revise notes on yellow legal pads.  Now we have to alter our Powerpoints. "The 'Arab Moment' began January 2011.  Discuss."

• What just happened in Tunisia is going to change the canon that Columbia students read for Contemporary Civilization. As either current or former Columbia students, we all know what the French Revolution of 1789 represented for Europe. We will soon see what the Tunisian revolution of 2011 is going to be for the Arab world. ("A new beginning for Tunisia: Tunisia's revolution is a call for increased student awareness," by Youssef Cherif, February 8, 2011, Columbia Spectator)
  

Roll me over, Romeo

Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karroubi have made a request to support the Egyptian protests. "With just under a week to go before the proposed demonstration, the call has provoked a large online response centering around the 25 Bahman Facebook page, a reference to the rally’s date in the Persian calendar"  ("Iran’s Opposition Seeks Rally to Back Egypt and Tunisia," by William Yong, New York Times, February 7, 2011)  It should be noted that the Iranian government changed more than Egypt's in the last few decades, I suppose.

Mapping Dissent (and Counter-Revolution?)

A useful interactive map. ("Unrest in North Africa and the Middle East," by Sara Sorcher, Brian McGill and Julia Edwards, National Journal, February 2, 2011)

Does Hope Spring From the Barrel of a Tank?:  the Problem with Relying on Military Officers to Foster Change

Thoughtful detail from Londonistani on the roots of the Egyptian protests.  Americans have to ask how much and for how long they are willing to fund those officers.

• Mubarak...was the fourth leader of the Egypt's Free Officers' regime which came to power in a military coup against a constitutional monarchy in 1952. Egypt has a long history of being at the forefront of Middle East affairs and its people have a strong sense of pride. Political squabbling, corrupt politicians and disastrous war against the newly formed state of Israel motivated the middle class military professionals to remove their king, and British influence along with him. The coup's leader, Gamal Abdul Nasser, made Egypt the focal point of Arab hopes and earned their eternal admiration. In reality, he achieved little. His successor, Anwar el-Sadat switched the regime from the pro-Soviet to the pro-Western camp during the cold war. Sadat realised post-independence Egypt's central problem; it's economic muscle didn't match its ambition....
• Egypt's military leaders['s]...phobia of political competition acquired by their experience of the constitutional monarchy they replaced prodded them to the conclusion that Egyptians were not ready for democracy....
• [T]he problem with a rule-by-military-clique approach to government is that it does little for long-term development. Sadat's solution to this problem was to leverage Egypt's strategic value to the United States as a source of income. ("Mubarak and Me," January 31, 2011, Londonstani, Abu Muqawama)

Comparing Egypt with Egypt: J-Curve and Revolutions of Rising Expectations

Perhaps Hosni Mubarak's political party will recognize the situation they are in.  It is reminiscent of the one that brought them to power. James C. Davies, “Toward a Theory of Revolution,” American Sociological Review 27, no. 1 (February 1, 1962): 5-19, developed the J-Curve theory of revolution.  One figure is the J-Curve of rising expectations in Egypt ca. 1950, which don't continue, leading to Nasser's Revolution.  Not often does a 50-year old, political science theory have legs.  Fareed Zakaria seems to have been channeling Davies on his CNN GPS show, 30 January:

• You see, Tunisia and Egypt had been reforming their economies. This stimulated growth as a consequence. Tunisia have been growing at 5 percent a year and Egypt much faster than that. Economic growth stirs up expectations. It is this revolution of rising expectations that often undoes a dictatorship, because it is unable to handle the growing demands of its citizens. (FAREED ZAKARIA GPS, "Unrest in Egypt," Aired January 30, 2011 - 10:00 ET)

To compare or not to compare:  Is Revolution an Egyptian Word?

The blog Abu Muqawama ("Egypt: A Humble Request," January 30, 2011) makes a timely point: "can we all agree to stop using European historical analogies to describe what is taking place in Egypt? It's not Europe in 1848 or Eastern Europe in 1989 or France in 1789: it's Egypt in 2011.... When we use "western" frames of reference to make sense of what is taking place, by contrast, we a) sound really freaking narcissistic and b) fail to take those local phenomena seriously and thus miss a lot of what is going on."

I think the problem is not a Western frame of reference. After all, students of revolutions have developed some interesting insights into revolutions around the World by comparing them to earlier revolutions for which there is a fair amount of detail (France, Russia, China, etc.). 

The problem is the use of an analysis of a past revolution, to explain the future development of a rebellion that has not developed into a revolution as yet.  It turns out that no revolution springs full-blown from the head of Zeus, or from those involved in the early days (American mythology of founding fathers not withstanding).  Entrenched groups resist, movements radicalize, and the end result is much different than what people foresaw going in. (see The Dangers of Reification)

So, yes, that said, it IS important to remind commentators that (1) understanding 20th-century Egyptian history is more important than understanding 19th-century European history in understanding the current situation in Egypt (in this sense, 1952, 1956, 1981 in Egypt are more important than 1848, 1968, etc., elsewhere); and (2) to compare in revolutions is to deploy a metaphor (and as John Gaddis, Landscape of History suggests, that is what scientists, from geologists to astrophysicists, do).

Why Egyptian Street Protests?: a University Professor Lays Out the Bullet Points

• First of all, they want a real democracy.
• Another issue is the use of torture by the police, who are protected by the Emergency Law.
• The third is corruption.
• Connected to the corruption is the bureaucratic inefficiency.
• The last problem is the poverty.

("A Short Primer on Egypt Now," by guest post by Noor Khan, American Footprints, January 29th, 2011)  Professor Ulrich recommends We are all Khaled Said which includes latest video links.

Liberation 1944, 2011

• The Egyptian tanks, the delirious protesters sitting atop them, the flags, the 40,000 protesters weeping and crying and cheering in Freedom Square and praying around them, the Muslim Brotherhood official sitting amid the tank passengers. Should this be compared to the liberation of Bucharest? Climbing on to an American-made battle tank myself, I could only remember those wonderful films of the liberation of Paris. A few hundred metres away, Hosni Mubarak's black-uniformed security police were still firing at demonstrators near the interior ministry. It was a wild, historical victory celebration, Mubarak's own tanks freeing his capital from his own dictatorship.
• In the pantomime world of Mubarak himself – and of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Washington – the man who still claims to be president of Egypt swore in the most preposterous choice of vice-president in an attempt to soften the fury of the protesters – Omar Suleiman, Egypt's chief negotiator with Israel and his senior intelligence officer, a 75-year-old with years of visits to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and four heart attacks to his credit. How this elderly apparatchik might be expected to deal with the anger and joy of liberation of 80 million Egyptians is beyond imagination. When I told the demonstrators on the tank around me the news of Suleiman's appointment, they burst into laughter. (Robert Fisk, "Egypt: Death throes of a dictatorship," Sunday, 30 January 2011, The Independent)

Blog Update: New Issues, New Sites

Events in Tunisia, Yemen, and Egypt require a few changes to the blogs I read and recommend.  I have added the following:

• Al Jazeera Transparency Unit
• Arabist
• Blog Stephen A. Cook (CFR)
• Democracy Arsenal
• EAWorld View
• Lede (New York Times)
• Mark Lynch (FP)
• Octavia Nasr / Blog

Après moi le déluge?

An apocryphal comment by Louis XV, but perhaps the dismissal of Turgot, Calonne, Brienne, or Necker (that is the rearrangement of the chairs on the deck of the Titannic) might be the better historical metaphor to today's news from Egypt.

• 1776 Louis XVI dismisses his finance minister, Turgot 
• 1786 August 20: Finance minister Calonne informs Louis that the royal finances are insolvent 
• April 8: Louis dismisses both Calonne & the keeper of the seals, or minister of justice, Miromesnil, in an attempt to break the impasse.
• April 30: The Archbishop of Toulouse & vocal leader of the higher clergy, Loménie de Brienne is appointed chief minister of state 
• 1788 June: Outcry over the enforced reforms ensues, & courts across France refuse to sit 
• July 5: Brienne begins to consider calling an Estates-General 
• Late August: Brienne resigns, & Jacques Necker replaces him as Minister of Finance.
• 1789 June 30: Large crowd storms left bank prison & frees mutinous French Guards 
• July 11: Necker dismissed by Louis; populace sack the monasteries, ransack aristocrats homes in search of food & weapons 
• July 14: Storming of the Bastille(adapted from Timeline of the French Revolution)
• 2011 Jan. 29. Mubarak appoints the former head of Egyptian military intelligence (Omar Suleiman) his vice president (and therefore likely successor). He appoints the Air Force Chief of Staff (Ahmad Shafiq) as prime minister. ("Mubarak’s Response to Demand for end of Military Rule," 01/29/2011, Informed Comment by Juan Cole)