The Real Palestine Papers?

The Gaza Youth's Manifesto for Change.

Michael Steele Removed from the RNC

Well, yes.  But this is regarding another regime change.  Make that men remove torn photo of former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunis (from "Tunisians celebrate their freedom as country slides towards lawlessness," by Adrian Blomfield, 16 Jan 2011, The Telegraph)

The BBC has a useful timeline of the Tunisian twitter/wikileaks/social network rebellion/revolution:

• 17 Dec: Man sets himself on fire in Sidi Bouzid over lack of jobs, sparking protests
• 24 Dec: Protester shot dead in central Tunisia
• 28 Dec: Protests spread to Tunis
• 8-10 Jan: Dozens of deaths reported in crackdown on protests
• 12 Jan: Interior minister sacked
• 13 Jan: President Ben Ali promises to step down in 2014
• 14 Jan: Mr Ben Ali dissolves parliament after new mass rally, then steps down and flees
• 15 Jan: Parliamentary Speaker Foued Mebazaa sworn in as interim president (16 January 2011, "Tunis gun battles erupt after Ben Ali aide arrested")

The Revolution Will Be Televised (or Live Blogged)

("Tunisia Revolution LIVE UPDATES," Huffington Post, 01/14/11)

Andrew Sullivan also drew attention to the following:

• As in the recent so-called "Twitter Revolutions" in Moldova and Iran, there was clearly lots wrong with Tunisia before Julian Assange ever got hold of the diplomatic cables. Rather, WikiLeaks acted as a catalyst: both a trigger and a tool for political outcry. Which is probably the best compliment one could give the whistle-blower site. ("The First WikiLeaks Revolution?," by Elizabeth Dickinson, January 13, 2011, Foreign Policy)

Tunisia and Belarus compared?

(December 20, 2010, "Video of Opposition Protests in Belarus," by Robert Mackey, The Lede, New York Times)




("Tunisia: What Does It Mean?," 14 Jan 2011, Andrew Sullivan, Daily Dish)

It Is Official (at least according to President Ahmadinejad): The Cape Verde Islands Are British!

The President's speech at Hamedan (where he may or may not have been attacked) included the following bit of historical geography news:

• Look at this country of England — a small island west of Africa. These people made weapons and ships; they attacked people; they subjugated India, whose area is 10 times the size of England, whose populations is tens of times larger! (August 4, 2010, "The Iranian President’s Geography Lesson," by Robert Mackey, The Lede)

(It would make for longer days in Winter in Lincolnshire.)

Rereading Tehran

Misreading Tehran is a fine series of articles by Iranian-Americans looking back over the past year of the so-called Green Revolution. (Foreign Policy, 7 June 2010).  As much as these are from outside Iran, they often still point to the importance of "granular details from Iran" to get a fuller story.  ("What the West Isn't Hearing About: To understand the big stories of the last year in Iran, we need better access to the little stories," by Azadeh Moaveni, July/August 2010)

 (picture from "A Year Later," the Daily Dish, 8 June 2010)

Notes of Evin Prison outside Tehran

• After the Iranian Presidential elections of 12 June 2009, and subsequent widespread political arrests, the visitation pattern of political prisoners’ families changed drastically from previous years. The number of political prisoners increased and therefore the number of families who were in search of their arrested loved ones also increased. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has conducted several interviews with the families of political prisoners regarding the details of their visits to Evin prison. (for a summary of their descriptions of Evin Prison, see "Evin Prison: Visiting political prisoners," 4 March 2010)
  

Offside Director Remains Imprisoned

• Internationally acclaimed Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi, slated to serve as a jury member at the [63rd Cannes Film Festival] festival, couldn't attend because he was being held in Tehran’s Evin prison....

• In March 2010, plainclothes security officials raided Panahi’s Tehran home and arrested him along with his wife, daughter and 15 house guests. Though Iranian authorities shortly released the others, they held on to Panahi, accusing him of “making a film against the regime following the post-election events," according to the French daily Le Figaro.
• Despite this, the prosecutor's office in Tehran argues that Panahi’s imprisonment has no political motive.
• "The arrest of Jafar Panahi is not because he is an artist or for political reason[s]," prosecutor Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi told the Iranian Students News Agency....
• Authorities had previously arrested Panahi, a supporter of the protest movement that emerged after last year's disputed presidential elections held in June, for participating in a memorial service for Neda Agha-Soltan, the young woman killed in July 2009 allegedly at the hands of a pro-government militiaman. ("Iran: Cannes 2010: Imprisoned filmmaker Jafar Panahi is honored at film festival," Babylon & Beyond, May 13, 2010)

The director's arrest and imprisonment is so counterproductive for the current Iranian regime, as Panahi's "Offside" (2006) is a film which suggest the richness and vitality of modern Iranian culture.
(see "Jafar Panahi on Offside," Payvand's Iran News 7 March 2007)

Cliff Notes for the Revolutionary Guard

Prompted by Sec. of State, Hillary Clinton's statement of fact that Iran is becoming a military dictatorship.

IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD

• Founded 1979
• Numbers about 125,000 troops
• Operates independently of the regular army
• Controls the Basij militia, Iran's "moral police"
• Commercial arm involved in construction, oil exports, petrol imports, defence and transport contracts
• The Qods Force special unit is thought to back armed groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon Source: Reuters (via BBC, 15 Feb. 2010)
  

• Some analysts believe IRGC influence in the political arena amounts to the irreversible militarization of Iran's government. Others, like Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, suggest the guard's power has grown to exceed that of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who legally has final say on all state matters. But Frederic Wehrey, an adjunct senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation and the co-author of a recent study on the IRGC, notes that the Revolutionary Guard is far from a cohesive unit of likeminded conservatives. Instead, he says, it's a heavily factionalized institution with a mix of political aspirants unlikely to turn on their masters. ("Who are Iran’s Revolutionary Guards?," by Greg Bruno, Council on Foreign Relations, MSNBC, 23 June 2009)
  

Movement within the Regime?

• A leading conservative rival to Ahmadinejad, lawmaker Ali Mottahari, warned that Iran was not yet out of the clear.
• "We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes," he said in an interview with Khabaronline (in Persian), the news website affiliated with parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani. "The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance...."
• Mottahari recently called on opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to stop calling for protests for a bit and let government insiders like him take care of Ahmadinejad and his ilk.
• In the interview he seemed to be auditioning to replace them, echoing their calls to restore civil liberties. "The government should respect social freedoms and stop its press bans," he said. "The government should also take action to secure the release of political prisoners and create a climate of friendship and affection."(LA Times. Babylon & Beyond, "IRAN: A day after 22 Bahman rally, a conservative Ahmadinejad rival opens fire," February 12, 2010)

(Note: Babylon & Beyond has a full post-mortem of the Iranian government's actions and those of the Green movement on 22 Bahman here.)

Iran: Prisoners Issue Statement in wake of 22 Bahman

• On February 11th, the regime once again showed its true face. It used all its power to prevent people from peacefully expressing their righteous demands in the streets.
• Not only did they fill every step of the streets with security and plainclothes forces, but they did not spare us, the prisoners, either. They took several prisoners such as Mansour Osanloo (the head of the bus driver union) and Arzhang Davoodi (long time political prisoner) to solitary confinement, and denied all prisoners every form of communication with the outside world, such as telephone calls and visitation. They even closed the gates of all sections, halls, and cells, thus depriving us from breaks in the open air....
• As the entire world witnessed, the regime blocked people’s way to freedom, and even to Azadi (Freedom) Square. We wish that the international and human rights organizations, and in particular, governments, would realize that lack of freedom is Iranian people’s essential problem with the regime. The solution to all the problems that foreign governments have with this regime lies in Iranian people’s freedom, and we hope that they would see the necessity of taking action and seriously supporting the Iranians. (Persian2English, "Gohardasht Prisoners Issue Statement," February 13, 2010)

Gohardasht prison in Karaj includes, among others,

• arrested Baha’is — Leva Khanjani, Babak Mobash-sher, Payam Fana’ian, Nika Hoveyda’i, Jinous Sobhani, Artin Ghazanfari, Farid Rohani, Ahmad Rohani, Ibrahim Shad-Mehr and Zavosh Shad-Mehr — who have been arrested on charges of participation in Ashura observances and organizing [Baha'i] gatherings, have not had any visits with their families....
• Some time ago, the Tehran Prosecutor-General [Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi] had talked about finding weapons and bullets in the homes of the arrested Baha’is. The Baha’i International Community has vehemently denied these accusations, and declared that the arrested Baha’is were innocent. ("Transfer of arrested Baha’is to Gohar-dasht prison in Karaj," January 26, 2010, Iran Press Watch)

Friday-morning quarterbacking Iran

Juan Cole's assessment is pessimistic, but worth reading in full.

• What I would say is that coming off the Ashura protests, the Green Movement had the momentum and the regime was under pressure. The rallies had spread to a number of cities, including conservative ones like Isfahan and Mashhad. The crowds seemed to be turning on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• After Thursday, the momentum is now with the regime. Either the Revolutionary Guards are getting better at countering the dissidents or movement members are tired of getting beaten up with no measurable political impact. As I said yesterday, the regime blocked the 'flashmobs' by interfering with electronic communication (google mail, Facebook, Twitter). They also thought strategically about how to control the public space of major cities, resorting to plainclothesmen rather than just uniformed police squads....
• The Green Movement cannot depend on being able to go on indefinitely mounting big public demonstrations, especially since the cost to the protesters is rising, with beatings, firing of live ammunition, mass arrests and executions. It also cannot continue to depend on informal networks to organize, since these can be fairly easily disrupted.
• Mir Hosain Musavi has said he refuses to form a political party. There are such parties or at least vague groupings in Iranian politics (former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani leads one), and they have members of parliament. By refusing to develop a grassroots political organization, Musavi may be making the same mistake as former president Abo'l-Hasan Bani-Sadr, who was toppled from the presidency in summer, 1981, because he declined to seek a mass organization, whereas his enemies had the "Hezbollah" popular militia and the Islamic Republican Party that grouped key hard line clerics. Ahmadinejad has his Alliance of Builders in Tehran, and is backed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij paramilitary, and other security forces. Musavi has the little flashmobs who couldn't, at least on Thursday. (Informed Comment, "How the Iranian Regime Checkmated the Green Dissidents on a Crucial Day," 12 Feb. 2010)
  

Also, I think we cannot discount the overwhelming force on that day.

Isfahan: Protests outside Tehran

• Isfahan (Noon): Large crowds gathered and were trapped on Si o Se pol Bridge. Since the people had no way to escape, security forces arrested large numbers of them. Not even the children and elderly were spared: a 12 years-old, as well as old men and women, have been arrested. The police are using extreme violence hitting people with chains, hoses, and batons.
• The shops are closed in the area. No shots have been fired, but the security forces are generating loud aerial sounds to intimidate people.
• Most people in their cars showed their solidarity by honking their horns.
• Slogans chanted: “Have no fear, we’re all in this together” and “Death to Dictator.”
• People report that they gather, chant slogans, then get dispersed. But they eventually gather again. The people have a strong presence in the area. ("Isfahan: Despite Intimidation and Violence by Security Forces, People Resist," Iran News Agency, Translation by: Siavosh J., Persian2English.com, 11 February 2010)

It is a serious time, but this must count as funny, yes?

• Iran has issued a new stamp to commemorate the massive turnout in the country's 10th presidential election held on June 12, 2009....
• "The stamp will be the symbol of the Iranian nation's unity and their massive turnout in the presidential election," [Iran's Minister of Communication and Information Technology, Mohammad Soleimani] added. ("Iran issues new stamp to commemorate election," 13 Aug 2009, Iran's PressTV)
  

22 Bahman Coverage

• Enduring America’s coverage of the marches of 22 Bahman, the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, will start at 0600 GMT (9:30 a.m. in Tehran)...[:] a LiveBlog with the quickest updates on events, the latest videos, and snap analyses throughout the day.... ("Iran: Enduring America’s Coverage of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas, 10 Feb. 2010, Enduring America)
  

countdown

• What we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multihttp://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=27755667&postID=6680908798766513271tudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday.
• “From top” and “from below”: it is less than 24 hours to 22 Bahman. (10 Feb. 2010, "Iran Analysis: On the Eve of 22 Bahman," by Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran, Enduring America)
  

Preparing for Thursday (watching the Iranian Government)

• So much is happening in these last days before Feb 11th. The internet is almost not working in much of Tehran or it is so slow that most people cant even open their Gmail or Yahoo. The Greens have announced alternative routs to Azadi sq. if the Gov. blocks all the entrances to the main street. But the Gov. has installed 100s of massive speakers alongside the street of the march so people's chanting cannot be heard. They also have called on Basijis from other cities to come to Tehran and have assigned a major intersection to each group to prevent the Greens from entering the official protest. This video shows city workers taking away the garbage cans to prevent people from blocking the roads with them in case of clashes. The Green girl is explaining how funny it is that the Gov. has started a garbage bin campaign out of fear. She and her friend laugh at them. (08 Feb 2010, "The Revolutionary Guards Prepare For Thursday," Daily Dish, Andrew Sullivan)
  

the whole world is watching (and taking names of the oppressors)

• The government has vowed to suppress further protests with even greater force than before, while a hardline cleric, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, secretary of the powerful guardian council, has called for more executions to deter further protests. "There is no room for Islamic mercy," Jannati told a recent Friday prayer sermon at Tehran University.

• At the heart of such confrontational rhetoric is a battle for the very soul of the revolution and what it was designed to achieve. While supporters of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, swear loyalty to the concept of velayat-e faqih (leadership by an Islamic jurisprudence) devised by him, Mousavi and Karroubi have been suggesting with increasing boldness that the revolution has failed to free Iranians from tyranny. In fact, they claim, "leadership" by an Islamic jurisprudence has merely instituted a new form of political bondage. ("The Iranian revolution grinds to a halt on the eve of its anniversary," by Robert Tait and Noushin Hoseiny, The Observer, Sunday 7 February 2010)

Green?: What Green?

• Scott Lucas, who runs the blog “Enduring America,” and Golnaz Esfandiari, a journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, pointed out that Iran’s president had appeared before two backdrops that featured images in which Iran’s national colors seem to have been reimagined to remove any trace of the color green, which is the country’s opposition has adopted as its symbol.
• (Lucas:) I don’t want to say the Government is in any way threatened by the Green movement, but somebody has apparently decided that, when President Ahmadinejad is speaking, the Iranian flag no longer has to be red, white, and green. (February 2, 2010, "Puzzling Over a Red, White and Blue Iran," by Robert Mackey, the Lede, New York Times News Blog)

Day of Remembrance/Reckoning Inches Closer

• The anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, February 11, is commemorated in Iran as a day to recognize the Iranian people’s stand against all forms of dictatorship. That day 31 years ago was one of the bloodiest of the Iranian uprising that toppled the Pahlavi dynasty and its dictatorial regime. This year, the government expects massive popular protests to erupt as Iranians continue to hijack official government holidays to demand their rights and demonstrate their frustration with the disputed June 2009 election that put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back in office for another four years. (“Revolution is not Completed; Dictatorship Still Exists,” February 2, 2010, niacINSIGHT)
  

Stability and Guidance in an Unstable Regime

Mir Hussein Moussavi: “The majority of people believed in the beginning of the revolution that the roots of dictatorship and despotism were abolished. I was one of them, but now I don’t have the same beliefs. You can still find the elements and roots that lead to dictatorship.” ("Opposition Hardens Line Inside Iran," by Nazila Fathi, New York Times, February 2, 2010)

Page F30 lists the sites of protests in Iran 27-28 December 2009

How many cities did the protests yesterday (Ashura) take place in?

Answer: at least 21.

1. Tehran - تهران
2. Yazd - یزد
3. Hamedan - همدان
4. Sari - ساری
5. Rasht - رشت
6. Tabriz - تبریز
7. Ilam - ایلام
8. Esfahan - اصفهان
9. Ahvaz - اهواز
10. Ardabil - اردبیل
11. Arak - اراک
12. Urmia - ارومیه
13. Qazvin - قزوین
14. Qom - قم
15. Karaj - کرج
16. Kerman - کرمان
17. Kermanshah - کرمانشاه
18. Yasuj - یاسوج
19. Mashhad - مشهد
20. Bandar-Abbas - بندرعباس
21. Zanjan - زنجان

BBC Timeline: Iran, December 2009

19 Dec: Influential dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri dies aged 87

21 Dec: Tens of thousands attend his funeral in Qom; reports of clashes between opposition supporters and security forces

22 Dec: Further confrontations reported in Qom

23 Dec: More clashes reported in city of Isfahan as memorial is held

24 Dec: Iran reportedly bans further memorial services for Montazeri except in his birthplace and Qom

26 Dec: Clashes reported in central and northern Tehran

27 Dec: At least eight dead following anti-government protests in Tehran; 300 reported arrested (BBC, 29 December 2009)

It is 1641 Come Again

• Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert at the University of Southern California in the US, said the government's crackdown was unlikely to stop the opposition.
• "If they were going to be cowed, they should have been by now," he told Al Jazeera.
• "Over the past six months, violence has been used, a lot of people have been arrested, tens of people have been killed, but yet you don't see any decrease in the level of demonstrations," he said.
• "The demands have gone way beyond cancellation of elections, and now people are demanding fundamental change in the system" of government, he told Al Jazeera.
• "The goal right now, is at the minimum, to weaken the position of [Iran's ] supreme leader, to make him sort of a figure head ... if not outright elimination of the supreme leader, and the writing of a new constitution." ("Iran MPs demand demo punishment," Al Jazeera, 29 Dec. 2009)

Mapping Protests December 2009

("Summary Update on Ashura Protests, Dec 27," Nite Owl, Dec.28, 2009)

Juan Cole on the murder of Mousavi

• The killing of Ali Mousavi, the 34-year-old nephew of former presidential candidate Mir Husain Mousavi, was also a violation of Shiite values. The Mousavis are putative descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, a sort of caste in Muslim societies called 'sayyid' or 'sharif.'
• In fact, in the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911, one of the complaints of the crowd was that the Qajar monarchy had had sayyids beaten. So if beating a scion of the House of the Prophet can help spark a revolution, what about shooting one? And, oppositional film maker Mohsen Makhmalbaf maintains that Mousavi was killed by a death squad that came for him in a van rather than just falling victim to random police fire.
• Killing a sayyid is a blot on any Iranian government. Doing so on Ashura, the day of morning for the martyred grandson of the Prophet, Imam Husayn, borders on insanity. (Monday, December 28, 2009, "Iran Roiled, Crowds Burn Banks, Police Station; Chanting against Theocrat Khamenei; But No Revolutionary Alternative Yet," Informed Comment)
  

1979 or not 1979

When one is concerned about the viability of a company, one looks to the actions of investors. When one is concerned about the viability of a country, one looks to those of its citizens.

A recent critique of Andrew Sullivan's suggestion that something revolutionary was occurring in Iran claims that the repressive government in Iran is firmly established and not likely to be overthrown by protestors (RCW Blog, Compass, December 27, 2009, "Answering Andrew"). Perhaps we should ponder the observation of a Daily Dish reader: "I'm just really struck by the fact that so few of these folks have masks on today. In June, half of the people were hiding their faces -- this Ashura, not so much.... Something very real has changed in the last six months." (27 Dec 2009 10:17 pm, "Are Some Baseej Defecting?," Daily Dish)

We all know that power grows out of a barrel of a gun (The Real Clear World blogger and Mao have something in common). But when you lose the intelligensia (universities), running a country becomes that much harder. And when you lose respect/fear on the streets....

(Below is a snippet of protest evidently from 27 December, Tehran.)

More on Mousavi

• Seyyed Ali Mousavi, a 35-year-old engineer and a son of Mir Hossein Mousavi's sister, was killed today. He was among the demonstrators at Maydaan-e Enghelab (Revolution Square) when he was shot in the shoulder. He was taken to Ibn-Sina hospital, but was pronounced dead on arrival. Mousavi, his wife, and his sister and his family, and a large crowd were reportedly still at the hospital.
• The hospital denied that anyone by that name had been admitted, even as dozens of police and a truckload of Basijis were reportedly guarding the hospital.
• Apparently a "large number" of opposition supporters gathered there, and according to Jaras, they have promised to continue protests into the night and over the following days. ("Ashura Updates," Frontline: Tehran Bureau, 27 December 2009)
• According to Mr Mousavi's website, Seyed Ali Mousavi was shot in the back as security forces fired on demonstrators.
• Correspondents say his funeral on Monday is likely to be a focal point for further protests. (28 December 2009, "Iranian protests spark fresh clashes in Tehran," BBC)
  

Brownshirts 1934, or Champ de Mars Massacre 1791, or Romania 1989?

"On Saturday night in Tehran, members of a pro-government militia broke into a mosque where former President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist leader, was speaking, forcing him to break off before concluding his remarks." (December 27, 2009, 12:14 am, "Iran Militia Halts Former President’s Speech," by Robert Mackey, New York Times)

The Revolution will not be Televised...

or, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

This next set of blog entries is just me playing catch up. I think what I am heading towards is the fallout of, if true, the murder of Ali Mousavi, "nephew of the rightful president of Iran, murdered by the brownshirts of the military coup" (to quote Andrew Sullivan).

But perhaps we might begin with the burial of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri in Qom on Monday, 21 Dec. 2009.

• "There were reports of Basij attempting to beat Karroubi, however, it is said that the crowd shielded him against the attacks. After the funeral was over, Mousavi’s entourage was harassed by plainclothesmen. His car was chased and one of his companions was injured after the plainclothesmen broke a side window of the car he was traveling in. He did not receive any injuries himself. One plainclothesman also got injured in the attack." ("Full Report of Montazeri’s Funeral in Qom," by Josh Shahryar on Dec.21, 2009, Daily Nite Owl)

Just viewing from the outside, it seems someone has either give the Baseej a green light, or they are beginning to sense that they cannot control the streets.

mapping dissent: we still need a basiji map

Turkey's USAK/ISRO (International Strategic Research Organization) has put out a new report on the elections (reported from Page F30). Below is the map of protests.

Overcrowding at Evin Prison is just the least of the problems

A description of incarceration there on a sweep for protestors (actually the witness here was taken into custody just for supposedly filming protestors):

• They were headed to the notorious Evin Prison, but M said he was relieved to get there. He knew that's where his family would look for him first. But he was horrified to learn that more than 500 prisoners would be crammed into a cell of about 500 square feet.
• Older than most of the prisoners, M was designated the cellblock leader, in charge of scheduling four-hour sleeping shifts for the inmates, who had to stand during the rest of the time, share a single toilet or make quick calls to their family on a single phone....
• Prisoners were frequently singled out and pulled away for interrogation. They came back hours later with bruises or with blood in their urine, he said. Some would be pulled out at 8 a.m. and returned 14 hours later, limping and exhausted.
• Guards told him that about 4,500 people were swept up June 20, with unaccounted numbers jailed in many other places. At one point, he met a family whose members were all jailed. A man, who was with his two sons, said his wife and daughter were in the women's section of the prison.
• Finally, M was taken for interrogation. He was blindfolded, never getting a chance to see his questioners. But judging from their voices, they were young men. ("Iran book publisher recalls weeklong ordeal in prison," by Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, July 2, 2009)
  

Like I said: you can punish some of the people, some of the time...

"Tehran's notorious Evin prison is full, now they use football stadiums." No idea if this Twitter post (Jim Sciutto, ABC, 30 June) is true, or if the following is as well: "Rooftop Allahu Akbars still on, despite Basij raids - 1 case where all residents of a 5-floor apt building were bused to Evin but we have seen this in crack-downs around the world before" (Lara Setrakian, ABC, 3 July 2009). But we have seen this in crack-downs around the world before, and if the bused-in Basiji are staying in hostels in East Tehran, surely these snippets suggest they are running out of prison space in North Tehran.

Stadium-sized Guantanomos

Reporters without Borders note Evin Prison in Northwest Tehran, originally built under the Shah in 1971 and manned by the SAVAK.

• “Like Chile’s Santiago football stadium in 1973, Evin prison has become a bloody detention centre where arbitrary treatment is meted out. We urge the international community to do its utmost to break the silence surrounding prisoners of opinion in Evin prison”, the organisation added, pointing out that 26 June is World Day against Torture”. ("What is going on in the silence of Evin prison?," 27 June 2009)
• 

Saruman the White was a wizard....

niacINsight picked up the following from Salon:

• They want to keep us indoors, and quiet. But which subversive programmer picked “The Lord of the Rings”?
• In Tehran, state television’s Channel Two is putting on a “Lord of the Rings” marathon, part of a bigger push to keep us busy. Movie mad and immunized from international copyright laws, Iranians are normally treated to one or two Hollywood or European movie nights a week. Now it’s two or three films a day. The message is “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.”
  

Perhaps Khamenei does not look like Saruman. But actions?

• With his sweet lies Saruman tried to persuade Gandalf to join him.....
• Saruman likes to be the first in everything. There is a spirit of unsporting competitiveness and envy within him....
• Theoden in his turn affirms that “you are a liar, Saruman, and a corrupter of men's hearts.” And Gandalf adds: “Saruman, you missed your path in life. You should have been the king's jester and earned your bread, and stripes too, by mimicking his counsellors.”
• Saruman didn’t trust anyone and didn’t want to surrender.
• 

Up Next: Rick Steves Reviewing Hostels in East Tehran

From the Guardian Blog. Forget the IRGC, in comparison, even the Basiji look well-trained with this lot.

• Newspaper Roozonline has an interview (in Persian) with one of the young plainclothes militiamen who have been beating protesters.
• UPDATE: Robert says the man is paid 2m rial per day, which would be about £1220 for ten days of work. A hefty fee, even by UK standards....
• The Guardian's Robert Tait sends this synopsis.
• The man, who has come from a small town in the eastern province of Khorasan and has never been in Tehran before, says he is being paid 2m rial (£122) to assault protestors with a heavy wooden stave. He says the money is the main incentive as it will enable him to get married and may even enable him to afford more than one wife. Leadership of the volunteers has been provided by a man known only as "Hajji", who has instructed his men to "beat the counter-revolutionaries so hard that they won't be able to stand up".
  
• The volunteers, most of them from far-flung provinces such as Khuzestan, Arak and Mazandaran, are being kept in hostel accommodation, reportedly in east Tehran. Other volunteers, he says, have been brought from Lebanon, where the Iranian regime has strong allies in the Hezbollah movement. They are said to be more highly-paid than their Iranian counterparts and are put up in hotels. The last piece of information seems to confirm the suspicion of many Iranians that foreign security personnel are being used to suppress the demonstrators. (Guardian, News Blog, "Iran crisis: live," 24 June 2009)
  

Text and context

Excellent article by Juan Cole on the historical context of internal revolts and external diplomacy.

• Obama will likely be as helpless before a crackdown by the Iranian regime as Eisenhower was re: Hungary in 1956, Johnson was re: Prague in 1968, and Bush senior was re: Tienanmen Square in 1989. George W. Bush, it should remember, did nothing about Tehran's crackdown on student protesters in 2003 or about the crackdown on reformist candidates, which excluded them from running in the 2004 Iranian parliamentary elections, or about the probably fraudulent election of Ahmadinejad in 2005. It is hard to see what he could have done, contrary to what his erstwhile supporters in Congress now seem to imply. As an oil state, the Iranian regime does not need the rest of the world and is not easy to pressure. So Obama needs to be careful about raising expectations of any sort of practical intervention by the US, which could not possibly succeed. (Despite the US media's determined ignoring the the Afghanistan War, it is rather a limiting factor on US options with regard to Iran.) Moreover, if the regime succeeds in quelling the protests, however odious it is, it will still be a chess piece on the board of international diplomacy and the US will have to deal with it just as it deals with post-Tiananmen China. (June 24, 2009, "Washington and the Iran Protests: Would they be Allowed in the US?," Juan Cole, Informed Comment)

Who are these men?


And why are they wearing camouflage? And why are they smiling? Police or Pasdaran - Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG)?

Baseeji as Rude Boys

Why me black brother why, dis robbing and killing?
Why me black brother why, dis looting and shooting?
Why me black brother why, you ruling your mumma?
Why me black brother why, you mash up your puppa?
What you gonna do when de voice say come?
Remember the day of judgment.
Pick up your guns and you go to town,
See your black brother and you shoot dem down.
That's wrong! (Mighty Diamonds, "Why Me Black Brother Why?")

Or, a song more related to what is going on on the ground by popular Iranian singer (now in exile I believe), who goes by the name Googoosh. (The Farsi is basically about those abroad remembering those back at home.)

Bit of a ramble: my response to those who claim we are only supporting street protesters because they look like us

Anonymous worries that we don't have any evidence of fraud and that we should perhaps assume that Ahmedinejad was the clear victor. But evidence is hard to come by because the government refused to let any observer near the polling stations, refused specific polling data, and, of course, refuses post-polling. What is probably true is that there is some real support for Ahmedinejad, although that is difficult to gauge because there are a lot of "supporters"out there like the police chief who stated, "I have a family." Collaboration takes its toll on the soul. I'd venture a guess that Ahmedinejad won the most votes, although well short of the 50% to prevent a run-off. But, it also seems that much of that support is weak. All circumstantial? I live in the USA, and we got very tired of our most unpopular president, Richard Nixon, claiming to speak for the "silent majority" (who, by definition, haven't said a thing). I suspect Iranians have tired of having Ahmedinejad and Khemeni claim the same, unprovable, mantle. As for Republicans moving from bomb Iran to our brother freedom fighters, well international politics means you cannot choose your "supporters." It doesn't damn the cause.

It is the singer not the song: know your players

• At least four distinct security institutions are involved in suppressing the demonstrations that have erupted since the June 12th election: The Pasdaran, the Army, the police and the Basij.
• The Pasdaran or Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp have the primary mission of protecting the Islamic Revolution. The Pasdaran number more than 100,000, or roughly one-sixth the size of the standing Army. I have not seen any indication in recent days of any hesitancy among thePasdaran leadership in putting down the disturbances, but I have read some unconfirmed reports of a division between Pasdaran officers and troops.
• The Army may be another matter. Soldiers share an heroic self-image as defenders of the nation and they certainly do not like suppressing civilians, especially unarmed, relatively respectful ones. Moreover, responding to civil unrest is hardwork. Soldiers hate doing it in my experience....
• Police have the task of keeping civil order, but once the numbers of demonstrators grew into the thousands and the demonstration sites increased, they lacked the numbers needed to maintain order. At present, the role of the police seems to be relatively unimportant.
• In the Iranian case, the Basijis are the heavies who use thuggery to intimidate demonstrators. The higher the profile of the Basijis in suppressing demonstrators, the higher the reputational costs for the regime of suppression. When mobilized, the Basij are supposed to be subordinate to the Pasdaran, but I cannot tell if this is actually the case at present. (Saturday, June 20, 2009, "Does the state have the upper hand?," Informed Comment blog)
  

Basiij, Google, and Farsi: an unlikely combination

from Friday, June 19, 2009, "How to help now that Google Translate is available in Persian / Farsi" Page F30)

Basij (بسیج) - Twitter / YouTube
Basiji (بسیجی) - Twitter / YouTube Note: Google is translating Basij and Basiji as "mobilize" so when you see that word it actually means Basij / Basiji.

Basij (I have given up standardizing spelling Farsi) in Historical Perspective

Good brief article in New Yorker on Basiji history

• The Basij is now said to have some 400,000 active members nationwide, with perhaps a million more reservists; in some ways, their relationship to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also their commander in chief, recalls the one between Nicolae Ceausescu and the loyalist miners trucked in from the Romanian countryside to strong-arm pro-democracy protestors. From 1997 to 2005, during the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, the Basij showed its usefulness again, by attacking students at demonstrations. Some students were killed. The protests died out. (June 19, 2009, Jon Lee Anderson: "Understanding The Basij")

Basiji-hunting and the paths to and from local knowledge

Is this true? Who is confident and who is not?

• By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.
• Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected
• The Basiji's are not.
• These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.
• Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis. (Steve Clemons, 'The Four Iran Scenarios and "Basiji Hunting"' Jun 19 2009, 2:06PM)

Michael Collins and the IRB? Is the comparison the Velvet Revolution 1989, Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, or Ireland 1919? Surely not the latter as the regime is not an outside force. But if you lose the community that you are policing, if you lose local knowledge, it might as well be. Perhaps the Civil War in Ireland 1922-1923? That is a dark comparison indeed.

Basiij and University Students

Pictures of baton charges, beatings, and destruction of dormitory rooms abound on the internet (the latter focusing on the destruction of computers, but there are a number of discussions of beatings and threats such as here). The forces of repression have two problems here, although neither threatens to unrail them at the moment.

• First, attacking computing/wireless phone service/the internet poses problems. Cell phone users include supporters of Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, and others. You cannot hinder one group without hindering all. Note the following graphic measuring internet traffic from Iran (based on inference from a good article, Wednesday, June 17th, 2009, "Iranian Traffic Engineering," by Craig Labovitz which also notes "The state owned Data communication Company of Iran (or DCI) acts as the gateway for all Internet traffic entering or leaving the country. Historically, Iranian Internet access has enjoyed some level of freedom despite government filtering and monitoring of web sites."). It shows the slowing of traffic on the date of the election 13 June and successive dates. But note that Iran has a number of businesses that are connected to the world market. They cannot just stop.
• Second, attacking university students is no longer attacking the elite. Iran's revolution has brought education to a huge swathe of the population. Beating students' heads no longer means beating the heads of the offspring of people used to skiing the Swiss Alps. And, as a parent, I can state categorically that parents don't like folks beating the heads of their children at university. Whomever they voted for.
  

baseej and revolutionary guard: a hierarchical chart and an ethical query



I have taken this from Iran Military Forum who have taken it from a Rand Report. It distinguishes the Revolutionary Guard from the Basiij. The selection below appears to exonerate some of the latter. But is this a question of supporting the troops not the war?

• [T]here are some indications that the Basij—many of whom are drawn from the ranks of Iran’s disaffected youth and elderly pensioners—hold cynical or ambivalent views of this ideological training. Basij training is frequently necessary for certain social benefits—loans, university scholarships, welfare subsidies, and the like. As stated by one 24-year-old member in a 2005 interview, “The only reason I stay in the Basij is for the money . . . many of my friends in the Basij are unhappy with the government.”
• Compounding this reported cynicism, there appears to be a rural-urban split in public perceptions of the Basij, noted in a previous RAND study and reinforced to us in 2006 by a longtime visitor to the Islamic Republic. In the provinces, the Basij present a more benign face through construction projects and disaster relief, while in urban areas, they are more apt to be seen quite negatively, quashing civil society activities, arresting dissidents, and confronting reformist student groups on campuses. Urban sentiments may be, moreover, affected by the Basij’s affilia-tion with the “pressure groups” or hardline vigilantes, of which Ansar-e Hezbollah is the most widely known. ("Who Controls Iran's Military And How Big Is It?," Iran Military Forum, June 16, 2009, 08:07:11 PM)

The question remains: is this man and his type culpable? (Police or Baseej?)

them regular trademark

Everybody run run run
Everybody scatter scatter
Some people lost some bread
Someone nearly die
Someone just die
Police dey come, army dey come
Confusion everywhere
Hey yeah!

Seven minutes later
All don cool down, brother
Police don go away
Army don disappear
Them leave Sorrow, Tears, and Blood

[Chorus]
Them regular trademark!

Them leave Sorrow, Tears, and Blood
Them regular trademark
That is why

[Chorus]
Hey yeah!

Everybody run run run.. ("Sorrow, Tears, and Blood," Fela Kuti)
.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders chant slogans during their meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, not pictured, in Tehran, Iran, Sept. 11, 2007. (AP Photo/ISNA, Rouhollah Vahdati, File)

2009 = 1979?: more attention needs to be placed on the forces of repression

(Andrew Sullivan has footage of basiij violence here and here)

• An Iranian journalist who witnessed the shooting told the Monitor that, in fact, the gunmen were plainclothed basiji militia in riot helmets and body armor who fired an estimated 300 bullets from a rooftop – roughly half into the air, and the other half directly into the crowd, over the course of an hour.
• "The guy shooting from the roof was very calm, not like he was shooting at people," said the witness. The ideological militiamen, who operate under the auspices of the Revolutionary Guards, fired as if "they were just trying to empty their guns into the ground, very cool, very relaxed."
• The resulting images of protesters with green armbands carrying away their dead comrades – with looks of horror on their faces and shouts for help on their lips – evoked the prolonged bloody protests that shook Iran before the 1979 revolution.
• Back then, soldiers of the pro-West shah fired directly on student protesters, prompting a growing cycle of violent 40-day mourning protests, which produced yet more dead "martyrs" each round and eventually led to the fall of the government. ("Eyewitness: Iranian militiamen shot 300 rounds during Monday's protest," By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, from the June 16, 2009 edition)
• 

Iran and Poland

If we are expecting a quick change in the government of Iran: in Poland, Solidarity was created in 1980 and talks between Solidarity and the government reached an impasse in 1981. The result was 2+ years of martial law. Eventually, 1988, Solidarity was re-legalized, and, in 1989, won the majority of seats in the new government. That is still revolutionary change. But whole lives are lived in the in-between time. (Taken from The Fall of Communism in Poland: A Chronology)

Is it Basiij or Baseej?; either way, these paramilitaries are as dangerous as Blackwater/Xe

Very good blog from Channel 4 reporter "A day in Iran I will never forget," by
Lindsey Hilsum|Posted: 11:33 am on 16/06/09

• Just before we went on air, we manged to obtain – and I won’t say how – pictures of a terrible scene of violence which had just occurred as dusk fell. People – who knows if they were real protesters or agents provocateurs – attacked a base of the basiij, the paramilitary shock troops of the Revolution. They set fire to the place shouting “You killed our brothers, now we’ll kill you.” People hate the basiij, and this assault was a shocking manifestation of that. The basiij shot into the air and then into the crowd. A man fell, dead; his body was pulled away.
• As I write this morning, I have no idea what today will bring. The violence which broke out at the end of the day was a terrible contrast with the peaceful protest we had seen earlier. I don’t know how many died, but certainly now people are being killed and injured.
• The protesters say they will come out on the streets again today. Who knows what will happen now?

how much more good news can we take?

Today, the Pentagon announced that American troops had killed Abu Qaswarah, the No. 2 leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, in a raid in Mosul. U.S. military officials hailed the death of Qaswarah, also known as Abu Sara, as “a major disruption to the terror network, particularly in northern Iraq,” according to the AP.

However, this is at least the third time that U.S. officials have announced the capture/killing of a “No. 2″ leader of al Qaeda in Iraq in the past few years. On each occasion — including when they killed the No. 1 leader — they similarly hailed it as a major victory:

Sept. 2005: U.S. and Iraqi officials announce that they killed al Qaeda in Iraq’s No. 2 leader — Abdallah Najim Abdallah Mohammed al-Juwari, known as Abu Azzam. A spokesman for Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said that Azzam’s death was a “painful blow” to al Qaeda.

June 2006: U.S. and Iraqi officials announce that they have killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the No. 1 leader of al Qaeda in Iraq. President Bush called his death a “severe blow” to the terrorist group.

Sept. 2006: Iraqi authorities capture Hamed Jumaa Farid al-Saeedi, known as Abu Humam or Abu Rana, al Qaeda in Iraq’s No. 2 leader. Iraqi national security adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie said that the arrest left the terrorist organization suffering a “serious leadership crisis.” “Our troops have dealt fatal and painful blows to this organization,” he added.

Al Qaeda continues to remain resilient in the face of these attacks from the U.S. military, who are trying to undo a situation created by Bush’s invasion. No matter how many times troops kill top leaders, new ones emerge, because the insurgency continues to be, in part, fueled by the U.S. occupation. As counterterrorism analyst Evan Kohlmann said in 2005, “If I had a nickel for every No. 2 and Nov. 3 they’ve arrested or killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, I’d be a millionaire.” (Think Progress, "For at least the Third Time, Officials Take down a 'No. 2' leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq," 15 October 2008)

one step forward, two steps back, down ina babylon

• Soldiers stopping cars hand out leaflets warning drivers to check their vehicles before they set off, because of bombs which can be easily and quickly attached with magnets.
• Concrete anti-blast walls still surround almost every significant building here, and stretch along streets where there are markets bringing relative safety, but turning the pavements - where the vendors' stalls are - into narrow, claustrophobic canyons.
• There are numerous sandbagged machine-gun posts. There is even one looking out from the walls of the ministry of agriculture compound.
• Residential districts are protected with chicanes of concrete bollards, coils of rusting razor-wire, oil drums filled with concrete, sawn-down trunks of date palm trees and more check-points, protected with sandbags.
• One day, our anonymous BBC car is waved on by two policemen, but then everybody is doing urgent U-turns and heading back the way they came.
• The street is cordoned off - there has been a roadside bomb. Two people are dead and two cars are wrecked - their bonnets thrown up and twisted, tyres blown out, dents in their doors from the impact of the explosion.
• Shopkeepers are sweeping up glass from their front windows. One man - still in shock - rails against the American occupation. "Is this the freedom they brought us?" he asks. And he curses the bombers: "How can people call themselves Muslims and do this?"
• The next day, two bombs - one in a car in a car-park, the other by the roadside - kill 16 people. They were out shopping and at least 50 more were injured, but it barely makes the news. Baghdad is getting better now, is it not?
• It is getting better, but this could simply be the eye of the storm, like the calm circle in the middle of those dramatic satellite photographs of hurricanes.
• The second stage of this hurricane could be revenge. Thousands of people have been threatened, burned, bombed and shot from their homes.("Painfully slow progress in Iraq," BBC, 11 Oct. 2008)
  

the label is balkanization

• WASHINGTON - Satellite images taken at night show heavily Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baghdad began emptying before a U.S. troop surge in 2007, graphic evidence of ethnic cleansing that preceded a drop in violence, according to a report published on Friday.
• The images support the view of international refugee organizations and Iraq experts that a major population shift was a key factor in the decline in sectarian violence, particularly in the Iraqi capital, the epicenter of the bloodletting in which hundreds of thousands were killed.("Satellite images show ethnic cleanout in Iraq," By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor, Reuters, Fri Sep 19, 2008)
  

assassination attempts continue "routinely"

• BAGHDAD -- A suicide bomber tried to assassinate politician Ahmad Chalabi on Friday night, killing six of his guards when he rammed his car into the Shiite Muslim politician's speeding convoy, Chalabi's spokesman said.
• Chalabi, who has survived at least three previous attempts on his life, was returning to his home in the west Baghdad district of Mansour when the bomber in a sport utility vehicle struck, spokesman Iyad Kadhim Sabti said. At least 17 people were wounded, including nine of Chalabi's guards, police said. Chalabi was unharmed....
• Despite a drop in violence in the last year, assassination attempts targeting civil servants and prominent individuals continue to occur routinely in Baghdad. Earlier Friday, gunmen with silencers killed a civilian advisor to the Defense Ministry, Abdul Amir Hassan Abbas, as he drove through east Baghdad, police said.("Iraq politician Ahmad Chalabi survives assassination attempt," By Ned Parker and Saif Hameed, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers, September 6, 2008)
  

it is victory in America!...

...or something. Never mind that the Iraqi political process is creaking to a halt. Never mind that Awakening Councils are not going to be happy that al-Maliki's government has assumed control of Anbar. Gen. Petraeus is worried about the continued existence of al-Qaeda there.

• Al Qaeda remains a dangerous force in Iraq despite a general decline in violence and U.S. troops must continue to confront the militant group, the outgoing top U.S. general in the country said. General David Petraeus told al Arabiya television he believed recent success in reducing violence had restored the United States' image with Iraqis. Troops initially greeted as liberators but later viewed as occupiers were now again accepted as friends. In the interview recorded on Monday and scheduled for broadcast later on Friday, Petraeus was asked whether al Qaeda had been defeated in Iraq. "You will not find any military leader who will say this ... all we can say is al Qaeda is still dangerous," he said. Petraeus' comments were translated into English from an Arabic transcript of the interview sent to Reuters. "It is certain more of these crimes will be committed, and we must continue working to confront these attacks," he said.(from Democracy Arsenal, originally story, from "Qaeda undefeated in Iraq, work to be done -Petraeus," 05 Sep 2008,
  Reuters, By Mohammed Abbas and Waleed Ibrahim)