BBC Timeline: Iran, December 2009

19 Dec: Influential dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri dies aged 87

21 Dec: Tens of thousands attend his funeral in Qom; reports of clashes between opposition supporters and security forces

22 Dec: Further confrontations reported in Qom

23 Dec: More clashes reported in city of Isfahan as memorial is held

24 Dec: Iran reportedly bans further memorial services for Montazeri except in his birthplace and Qom

26 Dec: Clashes reported in central and northern Tehran

27 Dec: At least eight dead following anti-government protests in Tehran; 300 reported arrested (BBC, 29 December 2009)

It is 1641 Come Again

• Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert at the University of Southern California in the US, said the government's crackdown was unlikely to stop the opposition.
• "If they were going to be cowed, they should have been by now," he told Al Jazeera.
• "Over the past six months, violence has been used, a lot of people have been arrested, tens of people have been killed, but yet you don't see any decrease in the level of demonstrations," he said.
• "The demands have gone way beyond cancellation of elections, and now people are demanding fundamental change in the system" of government, he told Al Jazeera.
• "The goal right now, is at the minimum, to weaken the position of [Iran's ] supreme leader, to make him sort of a figure head ... if not outright elimination of the supreme leader, and the writing of a new constitution." ("Iran MPs demand demo punishment," Al Jazeera, 29 Dec. 2009)

Mapping Protests December 2009

("Summary Update on Ashura Protests, Dec 27," Nite Owl, Dec.28, 2009)

Juan Cole on the murder of Mousavi

• The killing of Ali Mousavi, the 34-year-old nephew of former presidential candidate Mir Husain Mousavi, was also a violation of Shiite values. The Mousavis are putative descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, a sort of caste in Muslim societies called 'sayyid' or 'sharif.'
• In fact, in the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911, one of the complaints of the crowd was that the Qajar monarchy had had sayyids beaten. So if beating a scion of the House of the Prophet can help spark a revolution, what about shooting one? And, oppositional film maker Mohsen Makhmalbaf maintains that Mousavi was killed by a death squad that came for him in a van rather than just falling victim to random police fire.
• Killing a sayyid is a blot on any Iranian government. Doing so on Ashura, the day of morning for the martyred grandson of the Prophet, Imam Husayn, borders on insanity. (Monday, December 28, 2009, "Iran Roiled, Crowds Burn Banks, Police Station; Chanting against Theocrat Khamenei; But No Revolutionary Alternative Yet," Informed Comment)
  

1979 or not 1979

When one is concerned about the viability of a company, one looks to the actions of investors. When one is concerned about the viability of a country, one looks to those of its citizens.

A recent critique of Andrew Sullivan's suggestion that something revolutionary was occurring in Iran claims that the repressive government in Iran is firmly established and not likely to be overthrown by protestors (RCW Blog, Compass, December 27, 2009, "Answering Andrew"). Perhaps we should ponder the observation of a Daily Dish reader: "I'm just really struck by the fact that so few of these folks have masks on today. In June, half of the people were hiding their faces -- this Ashura, not so much.... Something very real has changed in the last six months." (27 Dec 2009 10:17 pm, "Are Some Baseej Defecting?," Daily Dish)

We all know that power grows out of a barrel of a gun (The Real Clear World blogger and Mao have something in common). But when you lose the intelligensia (universities), running a country becomes that much harder. And when you lose respect/fear on the streets....

(Below is a snippet of protest evidently from 27 December, Tehran.)

More on Mousavi

• Seyyed Ali Mousavi, a 35-year-old engineer and a son of Mir Hossein Mousavi's sister, was killed today. He was among the demonstrators at Maydaan-e Enghelab (Revolution Square) when he was shot in the shoulder. He was taken to Ibn-Sina hospital, but was pronounced dead on arrival. Mousavi, his wife, and his sister and his family, and a large crowd were reportedly still at the hospital.
• The hospital denied that anyone by that name had been admitted, even as dozens of police and a truckload of Basijis were reportedly guarding the hospital.
• Apparently a "large number" of opposition supporters gathered there, and according to Jaras, they have promised to continue protests into the night and over the following days. ("Ashura Updates," Frontline: Tehran Bureau, 27 December 2009)
• According to Mr Mousavi's website, Seyed Ali Mousavi was shot in the back as security forces fired on demonstrators.
• Correspondents say his funeral on Monday is likely to be a focal point for further protests. (28 December 2009, "Iranian protests spark fresh clashes in Tehran," BBC)
  

Brownshirts 1934, or Champ de Mars Massacre 1791, or Romania 1989?

"On Saturday night in Tehran, members of a pro-government militia broke into a mosque where former President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist leader, was speaking, forcing him to break off before concluding his remarks." (December 27, 2009, 12:14 am, "Iran Militia Halts Former President’s Speech," by Robert Mackey, New York Times)

The Revolution will not be Televised...

or, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

This next set of blog entries is just me playing catch up. I think what I am heading towards is the fallout of, if true, the murder of Ali Mousavi, "nephew of the rightful president of Iran, murdered by the brownshirts of the military coup" (to quote Andrew Sullivan).

But perhaps we might begin with the burial of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri in Qom on Monday, 21 Dec. 2009.

• "There were reports of Basij attempting to beat Karroubi, however, it is said that the crowd shielded him against the attacks. After the funeral was over, Mousavi’s entourage was harassed by plainclothesmen. His car was chased and one of his companions was injured after the plainclothesmen broke a side window of the car he was traveling in. He did not receive any injuries himself. One plainclothesman also got injured in the attack." ("Full Report of Montazeri’s Funeral in Qom," by Josh Shahryar on Dec.21, 2009, Daily Nite Owl)

Just viewing from the outside, it seems someone has either give the Baseej a green light, or they are beginning to sense that they cannot control the streets.