BBC Timeline: Iran, December 2009

19 Dec: Influential dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri dies aged 87

21 Dec: Tens of thousands attend his funeral in Qom; reports of clashes between opposition supporters and security forces

22 Dec: Further confrontations reported in Qom

23 Dec: More clashes reported in city of Isfahan as memorial is held

24 Dec: Iran reportedly bans further memorial services for Montazeri except in his birthplace and Qom

26 Dec: Clashes reported in central and northern Tehran

27 Dec: At least eight dead following anti-government protests in Tehran; 300 reported arrested (BBC, 29 December 2009)

It is 1641 Come Again

• Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert at the University of Southern California in the US, said the government's crackdown was unlikely to stop the opposition.
• "If they were going to be cowed, they should have been by now," he told Al Jazeera.
• "Over the past six months, violence has been used, a lot of people have been arrested, tens of people have been killed, but yet you don't see any decrease in the level of demonstrations," he said.
• "The demands have gone way beyond cancellation of elections, and now people are demanding fundamental change in the system" of government, he told Al Jazeera.
• "The goal right now, is at the minimum, to weaken the position of [Iran's ] supreme leader, to make him sort of a figure head ... if not outright elimination of the supreme leader, and the writing of a new constitution." ("Iran MPs demand demo punishment," Al Jazeera, 29 Dec. 2009)

Mapping Protests December 2009

("Summary Update on Ashura Protests, Dec 27," Nite Owl, Dec.28, 2009)

Juan Cole on the murder of Mousavi

• The killing of Ali Mousavi, the 34-year-old nephew of former presidential candidate Mir Husain Mousavi, was also a violation of Shiite values. The Mousavis are putative descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, a sort of caste in Muslim societies called 'sayyid' or 'sharif.'
• In fact, in the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911, one of the complaints of the crowd was that the Qajar monarchy had had sayyids beaten. So if beating a scion of the House of the Prophet can help spark a revolution, what about shooting one? And, oppositional film maker Mohsen Makhmalbaf maintains that Mousavi was killed by a death squad that came for him in a van rather than just falling victim to random police fire.
• Killing a sayyid is a blot on any Iranian government. Doing so on Ashura, the day of morning for the martyred grandson of the Prophet, Imam Husayn, borders on insanity. (Monday, December 28, 2009, "Iran Roiled, Crowds Burn Banks, Police Station; Chanting against Theocrat Khamenei; But No Revolutionary Alternative Yet," Informed Comment)
  

1979 or not 1979

When one is concerned about the viability of a company, one looks to the actions of investors. When one is concerned about the viability of a country, one looks to those of its citizens.

A recent critique of Andrew Sullivan's suggestion that something revolutionary was occurring in Iran claims that the repressive government in Iran is firmly established and not likely to be overthrown by protestors (RCW Blog, Compass, December 27, 2009, "Answering Andrew"). Perhaps we should ponder the observation of a Daily Dish reader: "I'm just really struck by the fact that so few of these folks have masks on today. In June, half of the people were hiding their faces -- this Ashura, not so much.... Something very real has changed in the last six months." (27 Dec 2009 10:17 pm, "Are Some Baseej Defecting?," Daily Dish)

We all know that power grows out of a barrel of a gun (The Real Clear World blogger and Mao have something in common). But when you lose the intelligensia (universities), running a country becomes that much harder. And when you lose respect/fear on the streets....

(Below is a snippet of protest evidently from 27 December, Tehran.)

More on Mousavi

• Seyyed Ali Mousavi, a 35-year-old engineer and a son of Mir Hossein Mousavi's sister, was killed today. He was among the demonstrators at Maydaan-e Enghelab (Revolution Square) when he was shot in the shoulder. He was taken to Ibn-Sina hospital, but was pronounced dead on arrival. Mousavi, his wife, and his sister and his family, and a large crowd were reportedly still at the hospital.
• The hospital denied that anyone by that name had been admitted, even as dozens of police and a truckload of Basijis were reportedly guarding the hospital.
• Apparently a "large number" of opposition supporters gathered there, and according to Jaras, they have promised to continue protests into the night and over the following days. ("Ashura Updates," Frontline: Tehran Bureau, 27 December 2009)
• According to Mr Mousavi's website, Seyed Ali Mousavi was shot in the back as security forces fired on demonstrators.
• Correspondents say his funeral on Monday is likely to be a focal point for further protests. (28 December 2009, "Iranian protests spark fresh clashes in Tehran," BBC)
  

Brownshirts 1934, or Champ de Mars Massacre 1791, or Romania 1989?

"On Saturday night in Tehran, members of a pro-government militia broke into a mosque where former President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist leader, was speaking, forcing him to break off before concluding his remarks." (December 27, 2009, 12:14 am, "Iran Militia Halts Former President’s Speech," by Robert Mackey, New York Times)

The Revolution will not be Televised...

or, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

This next set of blog entries is just me playing catch up. I think what I am heading towards is the fallout of, if true, the murder of Ali Mousavi, "nephew of the rightful president of Iran, murdered by the brownshirts of the military coup" (to quote Andrew Sullivan).

But perhaps we might begin with the burial of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri in Qom on Monday, 21 Dec. 2009.

• "There were reports of Basij attempting to beat Karroubi, however, it is said that the crowd shielded him against the attacks. After the funeral was over, Mousavi’s entourage was harassed by plainclothesmen. His car was chased and one of his companions was injured after the plainclothesmen broke a side window of the car he was traveling in. He did not receive any injuries himself. One plainclothesman also got injured in the attack." ("Full Report of Montazeri’s Funeral in Qom," by Josh Shahryar on Dec.21, 2009, Daily Nite Owl)

Just viewing from the outside, it seems someone has either give the Baseej a green light, or they are beginning to sense that they cannot control the streets.

mapping dissent: we still need a basiji map

Turkey's USAK/ISRO (International Strategic Research Organization) has put out a new report on the elections (reported from Page F30). Below is the map of protests.

Overcrowding at Evin Prison is just the least of the problems

A description of incarceration there on a sweep for protestors (actually the witness here was taken into custody just for supposedly filming protestors):

• They were headed to the notorious Evin Prison, but M said he was relieved to get there. He knew that's where his family would look for him first. But he was horrified to learn that more than 500 prisoners would be crammed into a cell of about 500 square feet.
• Older than most of the prisoners, M was designated the cellblock leader, in charge of scheduling four-hour sleeping shifts for the inmates, who had to stand during the rest of the time, share a single toilet or make quick calls to their family on a single phone....
• Prisoners were frequently singled out and pulled away for interrogation. They came back hours later with bruises or with blood in their urine, he said. Some would be pulled out at 8 a.m. and returned 14 hours later, limping and exhausted.
• Guards told him that about 4,500 people were swept up June 20, with unaccounted numbers jailed in many other places. At one point, he met a family whose members were all jailed. A man, who was with his two sons, said his wife and daughter were in the women's section of the prison.
• Finally, M was taken for interrogation. He was blindfolded, never getting a chance to see his questioners. But judging from their voices, they were young men. ("Iran book publisher recalls weeklong ordeal in prison," by Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, July 2, 2009)
  

Like I said: you can punish some of the people, some of the time...

"Tehran's notorious Evin prison is full, now they use football stadiums." No idea if this Twitter post (Jim Sciutto, ABC, 30 June) is true, or if the following is as well: "Rooftop Allahu Akbars still on, despite Basij raids - 1 case where all residents of a 5-floor apt building were bused to Evin but we have seen this in crack-downs around the world before" (Lara Setrakian, ABC, 3 July 2009). But we have seen this in crack-downs around the world before, and if the bused-in Basiji are staying in hostels in East Tehran, surely these snippets suggest they are running out of prison space in North Tehran.

Stadium-sized Guantanomos

Reporters without Borders note Evin Prison in Northwest Tehran, originally built under the Shah in 1971 and manned by the SAVAK.

• “Like Chile’s Santiago football stadium in 1973, Evin prison has become a bloody detention centre where arbitrary treatment is meted out. We urge the international community to do its utmost to break the silence surrounding prisoners of opinion in Evin prison”, the organisation added, pointing out that 26 June is World Day against Torture”. ("What is going on in the silence of Evin prison?," 27 June 2009)
• 

Saruman the White was a wizard....

niacINsight picked up the following from Salon:

• They want to keep us indoors, and quiet. But which subversive programmer picked “The Lord of the Rings”?
• In Tehran, state television’s Channel Two is putting on a “Lord of the Rings” marathon, part of a bigger push to keep us busy. Movie mad and immunized from international copyright laws, Iranians are normally treated to one or two Hollywood or European movie nights a week. Now it’s two or three films a day. The message is “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.”
  

Perhaps Khamenei does not look like Saruman. But actions?

• With his sweet lies Saruman tried to persuade Gandalf to join him.....
• Saruman likes to be the first in everything. There is a spirit of unsporting competitiveness and envy within him....
• Theoden in his turn affirms that “you are a liar, Saruman, and a corrupter of men's hearts.” And Gandalf adds: “Saruman, you missed your path in life. You should have been the king's jester and earned your bread, and stripes too, by mimicking his counsellors.”
• Saruman didn’t trust anyone and didn’t want to surrender.
• 

Up Next: Rick Steves Reviewing Hostels in East Tehran

From the Guardian Blog. Forget the IRGC, in comparison, even the Basiji look well-trained with this lot.

• Newspaper Roozonline has an interview (in Persian) with one of the young plainclothes militiamen who have been beating protesters.
• UPDATE: Robert says the man is paid 2m rial per day, which would be about £1220 for ten days of work. A hefty fee, even by UK standards....
• The Guardian's Robert Tait sends this synopsis.
• The man, who has come from a small town in the eastern province of Khorasan and has never been in Tehran before, says he is being paid 2m rial (£122) to assault protestors with a heavy wooden stave. He says the money is the main incentive as it will enable him to get married and may even enable him to afford more than one wife. Leadership of the volunteers has been provided by a man known only as "Hajji", who has instructed his men to "beat the counter-revolutionaries so hard that they won't be able to stand up".
  
• The volunteers, most of them from far-flung provinces such as Khuzestan, Arak and Mazandaran, are being kept in hostel accommodation, reportedly in east Tehran. Other volunteers, he says, have been brought from Lebanon, where the Iranian regime has strong allies in the Hezbollah movement. They are said to be more highly-paid than their Iranian counterparts and are put up in hotels. The last piece of information seems to confirm the suspicion of many Iranians that foreign security personnel are being used to suppress the demonstrators. (Guardian, News Blog, "Iran crisis: live," 24 June 2009)
  

Text and context

Excellent article by Juan Cole on the historical context of internal revolts and external diplomacy.

• Obama will likely be as helpless before a crackdown by the Iranian regime as Eisenhower was re: Hungary in 1956, Johnson was re: Prague in 1968, and Bush senior was re: Tienanmen Square in 1989. George W. Bush, it should remember, did nothing about Tehran's crackdown on student protesters in 2003 or about the crackdown on reformist candidates, which excluded them from running in the 2004 Iranian parliamentary elections, or about the probably fraudulent election of Ahmadinejad in 2005. It is hard to see what he could have done, contrary to what his erstwhile supporters in Congress now seem to imply. As an oil state, the Iranian regime does not need the rest of the world and is not easy to pressure. So Obama needs to be careful about raising expectations of any sort of practical intervention by the US, which could not possibly succeed. (Despite the US media's determined ignoring the the Afghanistan War, it is rather a limiting factor on US options with regard to Iran.) Moreover, if the regime succeeds in quelling the protests, however odious it is, it will still be a chess piece on the board of international diplomacy and the US will have to deal with it just as it deals with post-Tiananmen China. (June 24, 2009, "Washington and the Iran Protests: Would they be Allowed in the US?," Juan Cole, Informed Comment)

Who are these men?


And why are they wearing camouflage? And why are they smiling? Police or Pasdaran - Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG)?

Baseeji as Rude Boys

Why me black brother why, dis robbing and killing?
Why me black brother why, dis looting and shooting?
Why me black brother why, you ruling your mumma?
Why me black brother why, you mash up your puppa?
What you gonna do when de voice say come?
Remember the day of judgment.
Pick up your guns and you go to town,
See your black brother and you shoot dem down.
That's wrong! (Mighty Diamonds, "Why Me Black Brother Why?")

Or, a song more related to what is going on on the ground by popular Iranian singer (now in exile I believe), who goes by the name Googoosh. (The Farsi is basically about those abroad remembering those back at home.)

Bit of a ramble: my response to those who claim we are only supporting street protesters because they look like us

Anonymous worries that we don't have any evidence of fraud and that we should perhaps assume that Ahmedinejad was the clear victor. But evidence is hard to come by because the government refused to let any observer near the polling stations, refused specific polling data, and, of course, refuses post-polling. What is probably true is that there is some real support for Ahmedinejad, although that is difficult to gauge because there are a lot of "supporters"out there like the police chief who stated, "I have a family." Collaboration takes its toll on the soul. I'd venture a guess that Ahmedinejad won the most votes, although well short of the 50% to prevent a run-off. But, it also seems that much of that support is weak. All circumstantial? I live in the USA, and we got very tired of our most unpopular president, Richard Nixon, claiming to speak for the "silent majority" (who, by definition, haven't said a thing). I suspect Iranians have tired of having Ahmedinejad and Khemeni claim the same, unprovable, mantle. As for Republicans moving from bomb Iran to our brother freedom fighters, well international politics means you cannot choose your "supporters." It doesn't damn the cause.

It is the singer not the song: know your players

• At least four distinct security institutions are involved in suppressing the demonstrations that have erupted since the June 12th election: The Pasdaran, the Army, the police and the Basij.
• The Pasdaran or Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp have the primary mission of protecting the Islamic Revolution. The Pasdaran number more than 100,000, or roughly one-sixth the size of the standing Army. I have not seen any indication in recent days of any hesitancy among thePasdaran leadership in putting down the disturbances, but I have read some unconfirmed reports of a division between Pasdaran officers and troops.
• The Army may be another matter. Soldiers share an heroic self-image as defenders of the nation and they certainly do not like suppressing civilians, especially unarmed, relatively respectful ones. Moreover, responding to civil unrest is hardwork. Soldiers hate doing it in my experience....
• Police have the task of keeping civil order, but once the numbers of demonstrators grew into the thousands and the demonstration sites increased, they lacked the numbers needed to maintain order. At present, the role of the police seems to be relatively unimportant.
• In the Iranian case, the Basijis are the heavies who use thuggery to intimidate demonstrators. The higher the profile of the Basijis in suppressing demonstrators, the higher the reputational costs for the regime of suppression. When mobilized, the Basij are supposed to be subordinate to the Pasdaran, but I cannot tell if this is actually the case at present. (Saturday, June 20, 2009, "Does the state have the upper hand?," Informed Comment blog)
  

Basiij, Google, and Farsi: an unlikely combination

from Friday, June 19, 2009, "How to help now that Google Translate is available in Persian / Farsi" Page F30)

Basij (بسیج) - Twitter / YouTube
Basiji (بسیجی) - Twitter / YouTube Note: Google is translating Basij and Basiji as "mobilize" so when you see that word it actually means Basij / Basiji.

Basij (I have given up standardizing spelling Farsi) in Historical Perspective

Good brief article in New Yorker on Basiji history

• The Basij is now said to have some 400,000 active members nationwide, with perhaps a million more reservists; in some ways, their relationship to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also their commander in chief, recalls the one between Nicolae Ceausescu and the loyalist miners trucked in from the Romanian countryside to strong-arm pro-democracy protestors. From 1997 to 2005, during the reformist presidency of Mohammad Khatami, the Basij showed its usefulness again, by attacking students at demonstrations. Some students were killed. The protests died out. (June 19, 2009, Jon Lee Anderson: "Understanding The Basij")

Basiji-hunting and the paths to and from local knowledge

Is this true? Who is confident and who is not?

• By the way, two nights ago I went out to see a few things ... as the general crowds spread into their homes militia style Mousavi supporters were out on the streets 'Basiji hunting'.
• Their resolve is no less than these thugs -- they after hunting them down. They use their phones, their childhood friends, their intimate knowledge of their districts and neighbours to plan their attacks -- they're organised and they're supported by their community so they have little fear. They create the havoc they're after, ambush the thugs, use their Cocktail Molotovs, disperse and re-assemble elsewhere and then start again - and the door of every house is open to them as safe harbour -- they're community-connected
• The Basiji's are not.
• These are not the students in the dorms, they're the street young -- they know the ways better than most thugs - and these young, a surprising number of them girls, are becoming more agile in their ways as each night passes on.
• Also, with $10K every local police station lock can be broken and guns taken out...the police too are crowd friendly...for sure put a gun in their hands and these young become a serious counter-balance to the Basij...call them 10% of 18-22 year olds - that makes circa 10 million around the country versus max 4 million Basijis. (Steve Clemons, 'The Four Iran Scenarios and "Basiji Hunting"' Jun 19 2009, 2:06PM)

Michael Collins and the IRB? Is the comparison the Velvet Revolution 1989, Hungary 1956, Prague 1968, or Ireland 1919? Surely not the latter as the regime is not an outside force. But if you lose the community that you are policing, if you lose local knowledge, it might as well be. Perhaps the Civil War in Ireland 1922-1923? That is a dark comparison indeed.

Basiij and University Students

Pictures of baton charges, beatings, and destruction of dormitory rooms abound on the internet (the latter focusing on the destruction of computers, but there are a number of discussions of beatings and threats such as here). The forces of repression have two problems here, although neither threatens to unrail them at the moment.

• First, attacking computing/wireless phone service/the internet poses problems. Cell phone users include supporters of Mousavi, Ahmadinejad, and others. You cannot hinder one group without hindering all. Note the following graphic measuring internet traffic from Iran (based on inference from a good article, Wednesday, June 17th, 2009, "Iranian Traffic Engineering," by Craig Labovitz which also notes "The state owned Data communication Company of Iran (or DCI) acts as the gateway for all Internet traffic entering or leaving the country. Historically, Iranian Internet access has enjoyed some level of freedom despite government filtering and monitoring of web sites."). It shows the slowing of traffic on the date of the election 13 June and successive dates. But note that Iran has a number of businesses that are connected to the world market. They cannot just stop.
• Second, attacking university students is no longer attacking the elite. Iran's revolution has brought education to a huge swathe of the population. Beating students' heads no longer means beating the heads of the offspring of people used to skiing the Swiss Alps. And, as a parent, I can state categorically that parents don't like folks beating the heads of their children at university. Whomever they voted for.
  

baseej and revolutionary guard: a hierarchical chart and an ethical query



I have taken this from Iran Military Forum who have taken it from a Rand Report. It distinguishes the Revolutionary Guard from the Basiij. The selection below appears to exonerate some of the latter. But is this a question of supporting the troops not the war?

• [T]here are some indications that the Basij—many of whom are drawn from the ranks of Iran’s disaffected youth and elderly pensioners—hold cynical or ambivalent views of this ideological training. Basij training is frequently necessary for certain social benefits—loans, university scholarships, welfare subsidies, and the like. As stated by one 24-year-old member in a 2005 interview, “The only reason I stay in the Basij is for the money . . . many of my friends in the Basij are unhappy with the government.”
• Compounding this reported cynicism, there appears to be a rural-urban split in public perceptions of the Basij, noted in a previous RAND study and reinforced to us in 2006 by a longtime visitor to the Islamic Republic. In the provinces, the Basij present a more benign face through construction projects and disaster relief, while in urban areas, they are more apt to be seen quite negatively, quashing civil society activities, arresting dissidents, and confronting reformist student groups on campuses. Urban sentiments may be, moreover, affected by the Basij’s affilia-tion with the “pressure groups” or hardline vigilantes, of which Ansar-e Hezbollah is the most widely known. ("Who Controls Iran's Military And How Big Is It?," Iran Military Forum, June 16, 2009, 08:07:11 PM)

The question remains: is this man and his type culpable? (Police or Baseej?)

them regular trademark

Everybody run run run
Everybody scatter scatter
Some people lost some bread
Someone nearly die
Someone just die
Police dey come, army dey come
Confusion everywhere
Hey yeah!

Seven minutes later
All don cool down, brother
Police don go away
Army don disappear
Them leave Sorrow, Tears, and Blood

[Chorus]
Them regular trademark!

Them leave Sorrow, Tears, and Blood
Them regular trademark
That is why

[Chorus]
Hey yeah!

Everybody run run run.. ("Sorrow, Tears, and Blood," Fela Kuti)
.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders chant slogans during their meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, not pictured, in Tehran, Iran, Sept. 11, 2007. (AP Photo/ISNA, Rouhollah Vahdati, File)

2009 = 1979?: more attention needs to be placed on the forces of repression

(Andrew Sullivan has footage of basiij violence here and here)

• An Iranian journalist who witnessed the shooting told the Monitor that, in fact, the gunmen were plainclothed basiji militia in riot helmets and body armor who fired an estimated 300 bullets from a rooftop – roughly half into the air, and the other half directly into the crowd, over the course of an hour.
• "The guy shooting from the roof was very calm, not like he was shooting at people," said the witness. The ideological militiamen, who operate under the auspices of the Revolutionary Guards, fired as if "they were just trying to empty their guns into the ground, very cool, very relaxed."
• The resulting images of protesters with green armbands carrying away their dead comrades – with looks of horror on their faces and shouts for help on their lips – evoked the prolonged bloody protests that shook Iran before the 1979 revolution.
• Back then, soldiers of the pro-West shah fired directly on student protesters, prompting a growing cycle of violent 40-day mourning protests, which produced yet more dead "martyrs" each round and eventually led to the fall of the government. ("Eyewitness: Iranian militiamen shot 300 rounds during Monday's protest," By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor, from the June 16, 2009 edition)
• 

Iran and Poland

If we are expecting a quick change in the government of Iran: in Poland, Solidarity was created in 1980 and talks between Solidarity and the government reached an impasse in 1981. The result was 2+ years of martial law. Eventually, 1988, Solidarity was re-legalized, and, in 1989, won the majority of seats in the new government. That is still revolutionary change. But whole lives are lived in the in-between time. (Taken from The Fall of Communism in Poland: A Chronology)

Is it Basiij or Baseej?; either way, these paramilitaries are as dangerous as Blackwater/Xe

Very good blog from Channel 4 reporter "A day in Iran I will never forget," by
Lindsey Hilsum|Posted: 11:33 am on 16/06/09

• Just before we went on air, we manged to obtain – and I won’t say how – pictures of a terrible scene of violence which had just occurred as dusk fell. People – who knows if they were real protesters or agents provocateurs – attacked a base of the basiij, the paramilitary shock troops of the Revolution. They set fire to the place shouting “You killed our brothers, now we’ll kill you.” People hate the basiij, and this assault was a shocking manifestation of that. The basiij shot into the air and then into the crowd. A man fell, dead; his body was pulled away.
• As I write this morning, I have no idea what today will bring. The violence which broke out at the end of the day was a terrible contrast with the peaceful protest we had seen earlier. I don’t know how many died, but certainly now people are being killed and injured.
• The protesters say they will come out on the streets again today. Who knows what will happen now?