Regarding Turkey’s
general election, today, June 7, pundits have focused on whether the Kurdish alliance, HDP, can get more than 10% of the vote (polls show them at exactly that level). "A swing of less than 1% of the national
vote could decide whether the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP)
is forced to form a coalition government...leaving it unable to fulfill President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s longstanding desire to strengthen the presidency.... The uncertainty this
time around is attributable to the predominantly Kurdish Peoples’
Democratic Party (HDP)....This year...the Kurdish political movement has decided to field its candidates as
members of a single party. This electoral strategy, though risky, could
yield large rewards, with the outcome holding significant implications
for the party’s immediate fortune – as well as for Turkey’s long-term
prospects." (Sinan Ülgen, “Turkey’s Critical Election,” Project Syndicate, June 2, 2015).I have no clear idea whether the Kurds, however allied, will prevail in this 10+% quest. In any case, the stakes are high. "If the bid fails...Erdoğan would have a carte blanche for his presidential plans, and the Kurds would have no parliamentary voice. This, in turn, could spur Kurds to unilaterally declare a regional parliament." (Nora Fisher Onar, “Turkey’s Future: Erdoğan, Elections and the Kurds,” openDemocracy, April 7, 2015) There are several sites for live updates on the election, as well as #TwitterKurds and #TurkeyElections.
