the label is balkanization

• WASHINGTON - Satellite images taken at night show heavily Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baghdad began emptying before a U.S. troop surge in 2007, graphic evidence of ethnic cleansing that preceded a drop in violence, according to a report published on Friday.
• The images support the view of international refugee organizations and Iraq experts that a major population shift was a key factor in the decline in sectarian violence, particularly in the Iraqi capital, the epicenter of the bloodletting in which hundreds of thousands were killed.("Satellite images show ethnic cleanout in Iraq," By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor, Reuters, Fri Sep 19, 2008)
  

assassination attempts continue "routinely"

• BAGHDAD -- A suicide bomber tried to assassinate politician Ahmad Chalabi on Friday night, killing six of his guards when he rammed his car into the Shiite Muslim politician's speeding convoy, Chalabi's spokesman said.
• Chalabi, who has survived at least three previous attempts on his life, was returning to his home in the west Baghdad district of Mansour when the bomber in a sport utility vehicle struck, spokesman Iyad Kadhim Sabti said. At least 17 people were wounded, including nine of Chalabi's guards, police said. Chalabi was unharmed....
• Despite a drop in violence in the last year, assassination attempts targeting civil servants and prominent individuals continue to occur routinely in Baghdad. Earlier Friday, gunmen with silencers killed a civilian advisor to the Defense Ministry, Abdul Amir Hassan Abbas, as he drove through east Baghdad, police said.("Iraq politician Ahmad Chalabi survives assassination attempt," By Ned Parker and Saif Hameed, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers, September 6, 2008)
  

it is victory in America!...

...or something. Never mind that the Iraqi political process is creaking to a halt. Never mind that Awakening Councils are not going to be happy that al-Maliki's government has assumed control of Anbar. Gen. Petraeus is worried about the continued existence of al-Qaeda there.

• Al Qaeda remains a dangerous force in Iraq despite a general decline in violence and U.S. troops must continue to confront the militant group, the outgoing top U.S. general in the country said. General David Petraeus told al Arabiya television he believed recent success in reducing violence had restored the United States' image with Iraqis. Troops initially greeted as liberators but later viewed as occupiers were now again accepted as friends. In the interview recorded on Monday and scheduled for broadcast later on Friday, Petraeus was asked whether al Qaeda had been defeated in Iraq. "You will not find any military leader who will say this ... all we can say is al Qaeda is still dangerous," he said. Petraeus' comments were translated into English from an Arabic transcript of the interview sent to Reuters. "It is certain more of these crimes will be committed, and we must continue working to confront these attacks," he said.(from Democracy Arsenal, originally story, from "Qaeda undefeated in Iraq, work to be done -Petraeus," 05 Sep 2008,
  Reuters, By Mohammed Abbas and Waleed Ibrahim)

Balkanization in Iraq hits refugees

	Photo 1 of 4
A Palestinian girl pushes a baby in a stroller through the Palestinian housing complex comprising of 16 apartment blocks, lined by two streets of shops, most of them closed, in the Baladiyat district of Baghdad, Iraq, Sunday, Aug. 24, 2008. In recent months sectarian violence has dropped sharply across Iraq, however Iraq's Palestinians, who number about 11,000 and have come under attack by Shiite gunmen in the past, remain one of the most vulnerable groups, a U.N. official says. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

just a reminder why iraq matters in domestic elections...

...our tax dollars at work.

• One of America’s biggest military contractors is being sued by a Nepali labourer and the families of a dozen other employees who say they were taken against their will to work in Iraq. All but one of the Nepalese workers were subsequently kidnapped and murdered.
• According to the lawsuit filed in Los Angeles, the Nepalese workers were recruited in 2004 in their home country by KBR and its Jordanian contractors, Daoud & Partners, to work as kitchen staff in a luxury hotel in Amman. Once they reached the Jordanian capital, however, their passports were taken from them and they were sent to Iraq. While travelling in an unprotected convoy, the Nepalis were kidnapped and later executed.
• “It doesn’t appear that any of them knew they were going to Iraq,” said Matthew Handley, a lawyer representing the only survivor and the families of those who were killed. “A few were told they were going to work at an American camp ? They thought they were going to work in America.”("Halliburton sued under human traficking laws," by Chris in Paris, AmericaBlog, 8/28/2008)

and there is not enough water in Baghdad at the moment, either

It is difficult to continue to be amazed or outraged by the colossal failure of checks and balances in this.

• The National Security Archive released a report Friday Aug. 22, 2008 that sheds even more light on the premeditated lying and deception that took the United States to war in Iraq. The findings are based on new evidence compiled by Dr. John Prados and published by the National Security Archive. See "White Paper" Drafted before NIE even Requested , "Scoop" Independent News, Aug. 24, 2008.

• Most notably, Prados shows the depth of the deception perpetrated against citizens and Congress regarding the alleged threat to U.S. security posed by Iraq. It had appeared that the White House rewrote the Oct. 1, 2002 National Intelligence Estimate and then issued that doctored report to Congress on Oct. 4, 2002. Prados reveals convincing evidence that the Oct. 4 White Paper had already been written by July 2002. He shows that it was only slightly altered after the final NIE arrived. This White Paper served as the basis for the war.

• The unavoidable conclusion is that the Bush-Cheney White paper "justifying" the invasion was developed a full three months in advance of the intelligence data and analysis that should have served as the basis for that justification. The National Security Archive summed it up succinctly:

• "The U.S. intelligence community buckled sooner in 2002 than previously reported to Bush administration pressure for data justifying an invasion of Iraq,

• "The documents suggest that the public relations push for war came before the intelligence analysis, which then conformed to public positions taken by Pentagon and White House officials. For example, a July 2002 draft of the "White Paper" ultimately issued by the CIA in October 2002 actually pre-dated the National Intelligence Estimate that the paper purportedly summarized, but which Congress did not insist on until September 2002." National Security Archive in "Scoop' Independent News, August 24, 2008.

• The seemingly endless war in Iraq has become a total disaster on multiple levels for all involved. The awful toll in human deaths and casualties is largely ignored but real nevertheless. Over 4,000 U.S. soldiers have been lost in battle and tens of thousands injured. In excess of one million Iraqi civilians are dead due to civil strife unleashed by the invasion. The U.S. Treasury is drained and the steep decline in respect for the United States around the world is just beginning to manifest.

• The United States political establishment responds with collective denial on a scale that's incomprehensible. In the presidential campaign, the only sustained public commentary on the war comes from the Republican presidential candidate John McCain who makes the bizarre claim that U.S. is "surrendering" with victory in clear sight. McCain touts the surge without noting that 4.0 million Iraqis are "displaced from their homes." Nearly ten percent of Iraq's population is either dead or injured and there are 5.0 million Iraqi orphans.

• This pathological view of victory claims the "surge' is a success in the context of a devastated population in an obliterated nation lacking in the most essential supplies and services; a nation where death continues on a shopping spree. ("National Security Archive Stunner," by Michael Collins, Washington, DC, August 25, 2008, OpEdNews
  

working?

should i stay, or should i go?...

...or, cut-and-run?

Bush's evolving rhetoric on US-Iraq timetables

By The Associated Press – 17 hours ago

Changes in the Bush administration's rhetoric over the past 16 months on a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq:

April 3, 2007:

_ "I think setting an artificial timetable for withdrawal is a significant mistake. It is — it sends mixed signals and bad signals to the region and to the Iraqi citizens. Listen, the Iraqis are wondering whether or not we're going to stay to help. People in America wonder whether or not they've got the political will to do the hard work." — President Bush.

___

April 27, 2007:

_ "And if the Congress wants to test my will as to whether or not I'll accept the timetable for withdrawal, I won't accept one. I just don't think it's in the interest of our troops. I think it — I'm just envisioning what it would be like to be a young soldier in the middle of Iraq and realizing that politicians have all of a sudden made military determinations. And in my judgment, that would put a kid in harm's way, more so than he or she already is." — Bush.

___

Sept. 6, 2007:

_ "The prime minister says: What Iraq and her people now need is time, not a timetable. They seek our patience, not political posturing. They require resolve, not our retreat. We're going to succeed in Iraq. If given a chance, liberty will succeed every time, and liberty will help yield the peace we need." — Bush.

___

July 15, 2008:

_ "There's a temptation to let the politics at home get in the way with the considered judgment of the commanders. That's why I strongly rejected an artificial timetable of withdrawal. It's kind of like an arbitrary thing, you know — 'We will decide in the halls of Congress how to conduct our affairs in Iraq based upon polls and politics, and we're going to impose this on people' — as opposed to listening to our commanders and our diplomats, and listening to the Iraqis, for that matter." — Bush.

___

July 18, 2008:

_ "In the area of security cooperation, the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals." — White House statement that first raised the possibility of timelines.

___

Aug. 21, 2008:

_ "Well, we have always said that the roles, missions and size of the American forces here, the coalition forces, was based on the conditions on the ground and what is needed. We have agreed that some goals, some aspirational timetables for how that might unfold are well worth having in — in such an agreement. ... And I have to say, if I could just make the point, the reason we are where we are going, talking about this kind of agreement, is that the surge worked, Iraqi forces have demonstrated that they are strong and getting stronger." — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in Baghdad.

good view of post-surge Baghdad, from March 2008

Baghdad, 5 years on (part 1 of 3): City of walls

Baghdad, 5 years on (part 2 of 3): killing fields


Baghdad 5 years on (part 3 of 3): Iraq's lost generation

just in case we all forgot

(I guess it isn't vacation time, and time for loony attack ads in that part of the globe.) Thanks and a tip of the hat to Mr. Linkins and the Washington Independent.

• Here's another one for your Stuff You'll Be Surprised No One's Talking About file, a story from the Washington Independent, "Taliban, al Qaeda Unchecked in Pakistan." Note the word Taliban! That's right people, they are getting the band back together!
• Here's the mothereffing lede!

• Al Qaeda and the Taliban are executing suspected U.S. informants in Pakistan in a campaign to terrorize potential spies and reinforce the authority of the militant organizations across the country's vast and volatile tribal belt.

• I mean: wow. If I had Robert Gates across the room from me, this is the sort of KABOOM I'd lay on the man, if i were a reporter!
• Here's a pull that Spencer Ackerman highlighted in his tout of this piece:

• CIA operatives are shackled by a Pakistan restriction requiring them to work under its ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence - the largest intelligence organization in Pakistan] directorate, according to Keller and other former agents. CIA and ISI relations have been marred by mutual distrust in recent years. U.S. intelligence is particularly concerned that ISI elements are sympathetic to the Taliban -- if not Al Qaeda.

• Brother, there is your state sponsorship of al Qaeda Nation, right there! I mean to tell you people, there are few predictions that I am willing to make in this life. I'm not a betting man by nature. But if we are ever so lucky to get some sort of final analysis done on our post 9/11 partnership with Pakistan, it is going to come out that the ISI was, at all times, LOUSY with not just al Qaeda sympathizers, but with de facto agents of al Qaeda as well. (Jason Linkins, HuffPost Reporting From DC, "TV SoundOff: Sunday Talking Heads," August 17, 2008)
  

McClatchy: last home of real, investigative reporters?

CONFRONTING IRAQ

See our interactive media guide on Iraq.

BLACKWATER

See our timeline and interactive guide to Blackwater's activities in Iraq. Also read stories from McClatchy newspapers on the Blackwater controversy.

can someone do the math?

it seems to me, that with 30 in and 45 out a day, less than 1% recidivism, and some 21,000 currently being held, that we are talking a large percentage of iraqis have either been held in prison by the usa, or have someone in their family who has, over the past 4 years. (One of the crimes for which Saddam Hussein was rightly decried was the massive use of incarcerations.)

• BAGHDAD — The U.S. military said Saturday it has released more than 10,000 detainees in Iraq so far this year _ more than in all of 2007 _ as it continues to try phase out its running of Iraqi prisons.
• The military said about 21,000 people remained in custody, and it is currently releasing about 45 detainees and detaining 30 a day.("More than 10,000 detainees released in Iraq,"by SELCAN HACAOGLU, AP, August 2, 2008)

analysis of how's it going: posting from Helena Cobban

thanks to Juan Cole's Informed Comment for a link to Just World News by Helena Cobban

• This, from Reuters in Baghdad today:
  

Three female suicide bombers killed 28 people and wounded 92 when they blew themselves up among Shi'ites walking through the streets of Baghdad on a religious pilgrimage on Monday, Iraqi police said.

In the northern oil city of Kirkuk a suicide bomber killed 22 people and wounded 150 at a protest against a disputed local elections law, Iraqi health and security officials said. One security official said the bomber may also have been a woman.

The attacks mark one of the bloodiest days in Iraq in months...

• At the discussions I attended Friday in Washington with a group at USIP, and also with former Iraqi PM Iyad Allawi at Carnegie, a number of those who spoke warned with great intensity that the situation in Iraq remains very difficult for Iraqis, very politically fragile, and heavy with the threat of new waves of violence. Those who did so included Charles Knight and Rend al-Rahim at USIP, and Allawi at Carnegie.
• I record the latest spikes of violence with an incredibly heavy heart and no thought of schadenfreude. But they do, certainly, undercut the claims of those who have been crowing "the surge has succeeded."
• "Succeeded" for whom? Not yet at all for Iraqis, though the casualty figures among US troops are sharply reduced.
• Once again I urge that instead of looking at whether Bush's adoption of the surge "worked" or not, it would be far better to look at the costs and consequences of the fact that for 18 months now he has steadfastly refused to follow the excellent recommendations put forward by the Iraq Study Group back in December 2006.
• Those recommendations-- or something even more decisive than them-- are just as valid and urgent today as they were back then.
• But just look at the costs that have been imposed-- on the Iraqis, as well as on US citizens-- by Bush's failure to undertake the transformative and very urgent diplomatic and political moves that the ISG recommended.
• $180 billion of US taxpayer money... 1,110 US service-members killed... and an Iraqi casualty toll among civilians and security forces that is in the tens of thousands over the past 18 months.
• To which, today, add a further 50 Iraqi civilians.(July 28, 2008, "Bush's 'Surge': How successful?," posted by Helena Cobban)

"enemies with benefits"

thanx and a tip of the helmet to Washington Independent for pointing to Army of Dude for the following (the full article is worth visiting):

• Don't tell the pathetic non-serving members of the old media (and new media), but the surge wasn't wholly responsible for the drop in violence seen in Iraq over the last year. I have outlined the three main reasons violence has subsided, but one of the more important aspects is still largely misunderstood and mischaracterized by the punditry across the country.
• The 'awakening group' movement first appeared in Anbar in late 2005 (or if you're John McCain, it started in a time warp before and after the surge) and has since grown to a large, lethal force that battles elements of al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq. That is usually where the media narrative leaves you, insinuating that these groups are patriotic volunteers casting out the demons of al-Qaeda. What they don't mention is both the original motivations for these groups and their history of battling American soldiers. One of the latest to operate (and propped up by my unit in Diyala Province) is the 1920 Revolution Brigade. I covered their nationalist history a year ago, citing their name was a throwback to the 1920 revolution to oust British influence. So this group in particular didn't start in 2005, 2006 or even 2007, but in 2003 for one reason: to attack and kill Americans. (Army of Dude: Reporting On Truth, Justice And The American Way Of War, Sunday, July 27, 2008, "Enemies With Benefits")
  

venn of shame

Click here for a text-only version.

uh, oh: this afghan thing is not going to be a walk in a (poppy) field, is it?

John Moore/Getty Images

POPPY FIELDS FOREVER A crop in Helmand Province in 2006. An unlikely coalition of corrupt Afghan officials, timorous Europeans, blinkered Pentagon officers and the Taliban has made poppy cultivation stubbornly resistant to eradication.

• On March 1, 2006, I met Hamid Karzai for the first time. It was a clear, crisp day in Kabul. The Afghan president joined President and Mrs. Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Ambassador Ronald Neumann to dedicate the new United States Embassy. He thanked the American people for all they had done for Afghanistan. I was a senior counternarcotics official recently arrived in a country that supplied 90 percent of the world’s heroin. I took to heart Karzai’s strong statements against the Afghan drug trade. That was my first mistake.

Enlarge This Image

Véronique de Viguerie/WPN

• Over the next two years I would discover how deeply the Afghan government was involved in protecting the opium trade — by shielding it from American-designed policies. While it is true that Karzai’s Taliban enemies finance themselves from the drug trade, so do many of his supporters. At the same time, some of our NATO allies have resisted the anti-opium offensive, as has our own Defense Department, which tends to see counternarcotics as other people’s business to be settled once the war-fighting is over. The trouble is that the fighting is unlikely to end as long as the Taliban can finance themselves through drugs — and as long as the Kabul government is dependent on opium to sustain its own hold on power. ("Is Afghanistan a Narco-State?," by THOMAS SCHWEICH, July 27, 2008, New York Times)

since we have recently had a dispute over chronology of the surge....

...I thought this might be a relevant post

• In a presentation yesterday at the American Enterprise Institute, escalation architect Frederick Kagan repeated his claim that sectarian cleansing has not affected the drop in violence in Iraq. Kagan called it a “myth”:

The bad news from this perspective is that the sectarian areas of Iraq is still mixed. The good news is that the sectarian areas of Iraq are still mixed. And there is a myth out there that the violence has fallen because all of the cleansing is done. That is absolutely not the case.

• Watch it:

• Kagan makes the same claim in his new report, “Iraq: The Way Ahead“:

One of the persistent myths about the reasons for the success of coalition efforts in 2007 is that the killing stopped because the sectarian cleansing was completed. This myth is absolutely false. Baghdad remains a mixed city. The traditionally Sunni neighborhoods of Adhamiya, Mansour, and Rashid remain predominantly Sunni, and Shiite enclaves in East Rashid remain Shiite. Shia have moved into some parts of the Sunni neighborhoods, and many sub-districts within neighborhoods that had been mixed are now much more homogeneous. But the key components of a mixed Baghdad remain.

• Kagan’s claim is contested by major news organizations and the U.S. military’s own data. In December 2007, the Washington Post published the maps below, comparing the sectarian make-up of Baghdad’s neighborhoods in April 2006 and November 2007, and revealing the transformation of the city resulting from sectarian cleansing:

• The Post’s distribution of sectarian enclaves corresponds closely with these graphs, provided by Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I), that chart sectarian violence in Baghdad between July 2006 and July 2007, which is the period in which the U.S. military escalation, also known as the Baghdad Security Plan, took place.
• The August 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq also rebuts Kagan’s mythmaking. One of the NIE’s judgements was that where some “conflict levels have diminished,” it was due to sectarian “separation.” (Think Progress, Wonk Room, "Escalation Architect Fred Kagan Doubles Down On His Claim That Sectarian Cleansing In Baghdad Is A ‘Myth,'" By M. Duss on Mar 25th, 2008 at 5:47 pm)

more problematic than his belief that Iraq and Pakiston share a common border

• McCain keeps boasting about being "right" about the "surge" and saying Obama was "wrong."
• Look, it is more important that McCain was consistently wrong. He was wrong about the desirability of going to war against Iraq. He was wrong about it being a cakewalk. He was wrong about there being WMD there. He was wrong about everything. And he was wrong about the troop escalation making things better. The casualty figures dropped in al-Anbar, where few extra US troops were ever sent. They dropped in Basra, from which the British withdrew. Something happened. Putting it all on 30,000 extra troops seems a stretch. And what about all the ethnic cleansing and displacing of persons that took place under the nose of the "surge?" McCain has been wrong about everything to do with Iraq. And he is boasting about his wisdom on it! (Juan Cole, Informed Commment, July 22, 2008, "Troop Agreement Misses Deadline; Provincial Law Misses Deadline; Bombings in Mosul, Diyala, Fallujah")

bombing is never a shortcut to winning hearts and minds

At least 13 Afghan police and civilians have died in two incidents involving international forces, officials say.

International forces have been involved in a series of controversies of controversies

Four Afghan police and five civilians died in an apparently mistaken air strike by international coalition forces in Farah province.

Separately, the Nato-led Isaf said it had "accidentally" killed at least four civilians in Paktika province. (BBC, 20 July 2008, "Coalition 'bombs Afghan police'")

why wasn't this on the tv news; in the newspapers, etc?

People carry photos of the anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr during a protest in Baghdad's Shiite stronghold of Sadr City, Iraq, Friday, July 11, 2008. (AP Photo/Karim Kadim)

BAGHDAD (AP) — Hundreds of followers of a radical Shiite cleric in Iraq have taken to the streets to protest a proposed security agreement between Iraq and the United States.

The supporters of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr say the proposed deal would lead to a permanent U.S. occupation of Iraq.

They held their protest Friday in the southern city of Kufa and shouted slogans such as: "No to America."

Such demonstrations have become a weekly event, usually following prayers held in local mosques on Fridays. (AP, "Some Iraqis protest security deal with US," 11 July 2008)